KOSPI Expected Band, 2500~2630
This week, the domestic stock market is expected to maintain a cautious sentiment ahead of the September U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Additionally, events such as the U.S. August Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the presidential debate may continue to cause market volatility for the time being. Securities firms have projected the KOSPI index to trade within the range of 2500 to 2630 this week.
According to the Korea Exchange on the 8th, the KOSPI index closed at 2544.28 on the 6th, down 130.03 points (4.86%) from the previous week. The KOSDAQ index also fell 61.07 points (7.96%) to close at 706.59. This was due to the U.S. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index released on the 3rd falling short of market expectations, which intensified concerns about a global economic recession.
Last week, foreigners and institutions were net sellers of 1.8927 trillion KRW and 1.1885 trillion KRW respectively in the KOSPI market, while individual investors were net buyers of 2.9563 trillion KRW.
This week, the CPI announcement is scheduled for the 11th (local time), followed by the FOMC meeting on the 19th. The U.S. presidential TV debate will take place on the 10th.
Kim Young-hwan, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, explained, "The U.S. August ISM manufacturing index fell short of expectations, reigniting fears of a recession (R) that emerged in early August. With major stock market events scheduled and the Chuseok holiday approaching, investors are likely to adopt a cautious stance this week."
On the other hand, there are also forecasts that the market could rebound due to confirmed price stability indicators and expectations of a shift in monetary policy. Lee Kyung-min, head of the FICC Research Department at Daishin Securities, said, "We expect a technical rebound in the KOSPI this week due to easing recession concerns, price stability, and monetary policy expectations. Whether the index recovers the previous high of 2720 points will determine if it will trade within a range or experience a level down."
Experts anticipate increased interest in the semiconductor sector, which could benefit from AI-related expectations following Apple's unveiling of the first AI-equipped iPhone 16 on the 9th. They also advise responding with defensive sectors such as high-dividend stocks, considering the potential for continued market volatility.
Lee Kyung-min of the FICC Research Department forecasted, "During the KOSPI rebound, short-term trading opportunities may arise in the semiconductor sector, which could benefit from AI expectations related to the iPhone, as well as in IT, automotive, and machinery sectors, which are beneficiaries of Harris Trading and have high valuation appeal as oversold stocks."
Meanwhile, securities firms have set the expected KOSPI trading band for this week at 2500 to 2630.
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