"50% vs 46%"... 'Leading in Approval Ratings' Harris Invests 500 Billion Won in Presidential Campaign Ads

ABC News·Ipsos Approval Rating Survey
Harris Leads... "No Convention Effect"
Harris Spends $370 Million on TV and Digital Ads

U.S. Vice President and Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris is showing a lead in the polls over Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump, according to a new survey. However, the poll analysis indicates that there was no boost in support following last month’s party conventions. Vice President Harris plans to strengthen her lead by spending $370 million (approximately 500 billion KRW) on advertising ahead of the election, which is just over two months away.

According to a poll conducted by ABC News and Ipsos from July 23 to 27, surveying 2,469 Americans, Harris holds 50% support compared to Trump’s 46%, a 4 percentage point lead (margin of error ±2 percentage points).

This is not significantly different from the poll results from July 9 to 13, before the Democratic National Convention (August 9?22). At that time, Harris had 49% support and Trump had 45%. This suggests that the convention period did not produce the usual “convention bump” in polling numbers.

ABC News analyzed that this reflects a fully polarized electorate divided between the Democratic and Republican camps. Similarly, Trump did not gain a post-convention boost after the Republican National Convention in July.

However, Harris’s support increased among female voters. She received 54% support from women, leading Trump’s 41% by 13 percentage points. Before the convention, Harris had 51% support among women compared to Trump’s 45%, a 6-point gap that doubled after the convention. Among male voters, Harris’s support dropped from 49% to 46% following the convention, while Trump’s support rose from 46% to 51%.

Voters viewed Harris as running a better campaign than Trump. Among Democratic supporters, 93% positively evaluated Harris’s campaign, whereas only 79% of Republican supporters viewed Trump’s campaign positively. Among independents, 56% had a favorable view of Harris’s campaign, while 38% viewed Trump’s campaign positively.

Regarding the first presidential debate scheduled for October 10, Democratic supporters showed higher expectations. Eighty-six percent of Democrats predicted a Harris victory, while 79% of Republicans expected Trump to win.

On key issues such as the economy, inflation, border security, and the war between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas, Trump was expected to handle matters better than Harris. Support for Trump on these issues exceeded Harris’s by between 7 and 9 percentage points.

Conversely, Harris led Trump in favorability ratings (46% to 33%) and assessments of presidential qualifications (53% to 47%).

Meanwhile, Harris plans to leverage the massive donations pouring into her campaign by spending a total of $370 million on election advertising in the two months leading up to the U.S. presidential election. Since President Joe Biden’s withdrawal at the end of July amid concerns about his age and cognitive abilities, the campaign has raised $540 million. From October 3 to November 5, the Harris campaign will spend $170 million on TV ads nationwide, including key battleground states, and invest $200 million in digital advertising.