Ukraine's 'Drone Blitzkrieg' That Flustered Putin [AK Radio]

FPV Drone Breaches Russian Defense Line
Putin's Five-Term Record Tarnished... Sharp Reactions
Ukraine Post-War Handling Hinges on US Presidential Election Results

The Ukrainian military has recently succeeded in breaking through the Russian mainland defense line and advancing, drawing global attention. In particular, the battle in the Kursk region of northeastern Ukraine has become a major topic. This area was a fierce battleground in the early stages of the war but later fell into a stalemate and remained relatively quiet. However, as the Ukrainian forces attempted to advance into Russian territory from this region, Russia was caught off guard, spreading shock and anxiety. This operation is significant as it marks the first time the Ukrainian military has breached the Russian mainland defense line, but it is assessed to be insufficient to reverse the overall course of the war.

Ukrainian Counterattack and the Role of FPV Drones

[Image source=AFP Yonhap News]

The most notable weapon in the Ukrainian counterattack operation is the 'First-Person View (FPV) drone.' FPV drones are equipped with technology that allows the operator to share the drone's perspective directly and control it freely. These drones played a decisive role in changing the tide of the battle in the Kursk region. Originally, FPV drones were technologies spread for military or civilian use, but their successful deployment in the Ukraine war has opened a new horizon in war strategy.

In the Kursk battle, FPV drones were utilized in various ways. Primarily, they were used as reconnaissance drones to identify enemy positions and defense lines, and also as disruption drones. Especially, FPV drones used as suicide drones played a critical role in breaking through enemy defenses. Due to their very small size, these drones are not detected by radar and approach targets closely to explode, effectively dismantling enemy defense lines.

Since World War II, the Russian military has built layered defense lines at key points using the traditional 'defense in depth' strategy, but they failed to properly respond to this new tactic. Defense in depth involves stacking thin defense lines in multiple layers at major defensive points to exhaust the enemy's forces as they break through each line. However, the emergence of FPV drones dealt a significant blow to this strategy. Small FPV drones rendered trenches, bunkers, fortresses, and air defense systems useless, causing the Russian defense lines to collapse helplessly. Because of this, the current counterattack operation is called a 'drone blitzkrieg.'

Political Blow to the Putin Regime... Sharp Reactions

[Image source=TASS Yonhap News]

The Ukrainian counterattack has caused significant political repercussions within Russia. The Vladimir Putin regime had been confident in securing the mainland defense and winning the war, but this attack has put them in a difficult position. As hundreds of thousands of residents evacuated from Russian territory, President Putin convened an emergency meeting to respond. This incident dealt a severe blow to the pride of the Putin regime and is likely to influence the future course of the war.

Initially, there were attempts within Russia to downplay the Ukrainian advance. However, as time passed and the Ukrainian forces expanded the front without retreating from Russian territory, serious discussions began within Russia. Military bloggers and independent media revealed the breach of the mainland defense line, worsening public opinion, and the Putin regime could no longer conceal the situation.

Having secured a fifth term and solidified his lifelong rule, President Putin aimed to make victory in the Ukraine war his greatest achievement, but this incident disrupted those plans. Moreover, the breach of the mainland defense line raised doubts about the military capabilities of the Putin regime, exacerbating political instability within Russia.

Insufficient to Change the Course of the War... A Prolonged Front

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

However, this counterattack is unlikely to be a decisive blow that reverses the course of the war. Considering the scale of the front and the overall strength of the Ukrainian forces, the prevailing analysis is that it is difficult to overturn the war's trajectory with a single victory. Russia has yet to deploy large-scale elite troops and appears to be preparing for a prolonged conflict.

The territory gained by Ukraine in this counterattack is about 1,000 km², roughly 1.65 times the size of Seoul. However, the territory occupied by Russia in Ukraine amounts to about 20% of Ukraine's total land, which is larger than the entire Korean Peninsula. Under these circumstances, it is difficult for Ukraine to completely reverse the course of the war with this counterattack.

Additionally, the overall strength of the Ukrainian military remains only about one-fifth to one-sixth that of Russia, making it difficult to end the war with a single decisive battle. If Russia continues to wear down Ukrainian forces and then counterattacks with large-scale elite troops when Ukraine reaches its offensive limit, Ukraine risks having the front pushed back all at once.

Ceasefire and Postwar Handling Dependent on U.S. Election Results

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

The future outlook of the Ukraine war could change significantly depending on the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. The U.S. has greatly influenced the war's dynamics through military and economic support to Ukraine. Therefore, there is speculation that the 2024 U.S. election results will decisively impact the war's direction.

If former President Donald Trump wins the election, he is likely to declare a halt to support for Ukraine. Trump has already stated during his campaign that he would stop aid to Ukraine and end the war through ceasefire negotiations with Russia. If elected, ceasefire talks are likely to proceed with Russia maintaining control over the currently occupied Ukrainian territories. In this case, Ukraine risks losing major industrial regions and Black Sea export ports, potentially becoming a poor agricultural country.

On the other hand, if Vice President Kamala Harris is elected, U.S. policy toward Russia is expected to continue largely unchanged. Vice President Harris is likely to maintain the Biden administration's Russia policy and continue military support to Ukraine. In this scenario, the war is expected to prolong and fall into a stalemate. If the European front becomes a long-term stalemate, military tensions in East Asia could escalate instead. Should the Harris administration take office, the U.S. is expected to strengthen its containment strategy against China, which could significantly impact security in the Korean Peninsula and Taiwan regions.

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