'49% vs 45%' Harris on the Rise... Facing the Real Test After the Coronation Ceremony

US WP·ABC Joint Survey
Harris Leads Trump in Both One-on-One and Multi-Candidate Matchups
No Opportunity to Verify Skills... Verification to Intensify After the Convention

Kamala Harris, the U.S. Democratic presidential candidate and Vice President, has once again surpassed former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, in a poll released a day before the Democratic National Convention, the party's coronation event. However, there is a possibility of a temporary 'honeymoon effect,' and since Harris's lead in the polls does not significantly exceed the margin of error, most analyses predict a fierce contest between the two candidates in the November presidential election. To maintain her upward momentum, Vice President Harris faces the challenge of proving her capabilities by presenting her own policies and governance plans during the convention, which will serve as the first test, and in the approximately 80 days remaining until the election.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to a poll released on the 18th (local time) by The Washington Post (WP) and ABC News, conducted by the polling firm Ipsos from the 13th to the 19th among 2,336 adults nationwide (including 1,975 registered voters), in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup, Vice President Harris recorded 49% support, leading former President Trump, who had 45%, by 4 percentage points (margin of error ±2.5 percentage points).

In the previous July poll, President Joe Biden and former President Trump were tied at 46% each. After Biden decided not to run for re-election and the Democratic candidate was replaced by Vice President Harris, the gap in support between her and Trump widened.

In a multi-candidate hypothetical race including independent candidate Robert Kennedy Jr., Vice President Harris also led with 47% support, ahead of former President Trump’s 44% by 3 percentage points. Kennedy Jr. was recorded at 5% support.

WP noted that although Vice President Harris holds an advantage in the polls, the gap is smaller than the 4.5 percentage points difference between President Biden and former President Trump in the 2020 election. Since this poll only surveyed nationwide support, the newspaper analyzed that Harris’s lead among registered voters is not statistically significant.

WP reported, "Although the election dynamics changed after Biden withdrew from the July primary, a close race is expected in the November election," adding, "The outcome will be decided by who wins in seven battleground states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona, and Nevada."

Among all respondents, 44% expressed satisfaction with the presidential race being between Vice President Harris and former President Trump. This is a significant increase compared to the 28% satisfaction rate in the previous July poll. The main cause was a change in attitude among Democratic supporters. In this poll, 60% of Democratic supporters were satisfied with the presidential lineup, a sharp rise from 20% in last month’s survey. Meanwhile, satisfaction among Republican supporters with the election setup declined slightly from 50% last month to 48% this month.

The favorability rating of the running mates also favored the Democrats. Positive evaluations of Democratic candidate Tim Walz, Governor of Minnesota, stood at 39%, higher than Republican candidate J.D. Vance, U.S. Senator from Ohio, who had 32%.

[Image source=AP Yonhap News]

Trust in economic policies favored former President Trump over Vice President Harris. Trump recorded trust levels of 46% and 45% in economic and inflation management, respectively, surpassing Harris’s 37% and 36%. Trust in immigration policy also favored Trump at 46%, compared to Harris’s 36%.

Vice President Harris rose to prominence after President Biden withdrew in July amid concerns about his age and cognitive abilities, and recent polls show her leading former President Trump. She is performing well in key battleground states that will determine the election outcome, increasing her chances of victory. However, since her lead does not significantly exceed the margin of error, most assessments expect an extremely close race.

Meanwhile, Vice President Harris will be officially confirmed as the Democratic presidential candidate at the Democratic National Convention held in Chicago from the 19th to the 22nd. The convention will feature speeches from President Biden, former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, all expressing full support for Harris. However, the media has noted that Harris has yet to have an opportunity to prove her capabilities. The upcoming convention will serve as her first test, where she is expected to present her policy plans and vision, formally demonstrating her qualifications and abilities as a presidential candidate. In particular, the first presidential TV debate scheduled for September 10 with former President Trump is expected to be a critical turning point.