FPV Drone Penetrates Dense Air Defense Network
Ukraine Seeks to Seize Initiative Before US Presidential Election
"Insufficient to Completely Reverse War's Course"
The Ukraine war is entering a new phase as the Ukrainian forces, previously on the defensive, advance into Russian territory and launch counterattacks. The Ukrainian military, which had struggled to penetrate Russia's dense air defense network, is now breaking through the Russian mainland defense line using 'First Person View (FPV) drones,' a development expected to significantly influence the future course of the war.
Ukraine's decision to adopt the risky strategy of counterattacking Russian territory, despite more than 20% of its own land still occupied by Russia, is interpreted as a move to gain leverage in upcoming ceasefire negotiations with Russia ahead of the imminent U.S. presidential election. However, some analysts argue that with Russian forces still possessing a 5 to 6 times advantage in military strength, it may be insufficient to reverse the overall flow of the war.
Russian Mainland Defense Line Breached by FPV Drones... Air Defense Systems Rendered Useless
According to the Associated Press, on the 10th (local time), the Ukrainian military announced that since the 6th, it has entered Kursk Oblast in Russian territory and expanded the areas under its control. By the 12th, the area occupied by Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region was approximately 1,000 square kilometers, equivalent to 1.65 times the size of Seoul.
Russia, which had previously claimed to have repelled Ukrainian forces that entered its territory, also acknowledged the seriousness of the situation by convening a National Security Council meeting. At the meeting held on the 12th, chaired by Russian President Vladimir Putin, Alexey Smirnov, acting governor of Kursk Oblast, participated via video link and reported on the local damage. Acting Governor Smirnov stated, "Due to Ukrainian attacks, 12 civilians have lost their lives and 121 have been injured," adding, "Approximately 180,000 people have had to evacuate to avoid the Ukrainian offensive, with about 120,000 already displaced from their homes."
After more than two years of conflict, the Ukrainian military, which had repeatedly been blocked by Russian defensive lines and air defense systems, is reported to have breached the Russian mainland defense line using drones. They deployed jamming and suicide drones to disable the air defense network, followed by joint operations involving the air force and ground troops to break through the Russian defense line.
According to Forbes, the Ukrainian forces utilized 'First Person View (FPV) drones,' piloted directly like fighter jets, to detonate suicide drones equipped with small bombs in Russian trenches and fortifications, and also intercepted Russian tanks. Russian air defense facilities equipped with missile batteries such as the S-300 and S-400 were paralyzed by a swarm of jamming drones, leading to the failure of Russian forces to defend their mainland and enabling the Ukrainian counterattack.
The term 'FPV,' central to Ukraine's counterattack strategy, stands for 'First Person View.' It refers to a system that equips drones with front-facing cameras to provide pilots with real-time visual flight information. This technology has recently been introduced as a sub-technology in drone manufacturing and is widely produced for both military and civilian use.
U.S. Presidential Election Approaching... Ukraine Seeks to Gain Negotiation Leverage
The Ukrainian military's decision to undertake a highly risky operation by actively using FPV drones to breach the Russian mainland defense line is interpreted as an effort to secure a favorable position in the anticipated ceasefire negotiations with Russia following the U.S. presidential election.
According to analysis by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrainian forces concentrated armored units and advanced into the Kursk region, where Russian defenses were relatively weaker, accepting some sacrifices on other fronts. They are currently engaged in combat about 30 kilometers from the Russian border. The area near this region contains Russian natural gas pipelines, and the Kursk Oblast's Kurchatov area houses a nuclear power plant. ISW noted that if Ukrainian forces seize control of these assets, it could provide significant leverage in future ceasefire negotiations with Russia.
Meanwhile, the U.S. presidential election is unfolding as an extremely close race with an unpredictable outcome. Polls continue to show Democratic candidate Vice President Kamala Harris holding a narrow lead over Republican candidate former President Donald Trump. According to CNN, a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center from the 5th to the 11th, involving 9,021 American adults, found that when asked "If the election were held today, who would you vote for?" 46% of registered voters supported Vice President Harris, while 45% supported former President Trump, indicating a tight contest between the two candidates.
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