Recovered $60,000 but... 'Resistance Breakthrough' Is Key [Bitcoin Now]

'Black Monday' Breaks Below $50,000
Recovers to $60,000 Amid US Unemployment Claims Drop
Market Doubts... Focus on Surpassing $62,000 Level

The Bitcoin market in the first week of August experienced a highly volatile sharp decline. On the 'Black Monday' when both Asian and U.S. stock markets plummeted, Bitcoin temporarily fell below $50,000. Afterwards, as investor sentiment in both stocks and cryptocurrencies recovered, it regained the $60,000 level. However, market participants pointed out that surpassing the important resistance zone of $60,000 to $62,000 is crucial.

According to the global cryptocurrency market tracking site CoinMarketCap, as of 4:09 PM KST on the 10th, Bitcoin was trading at $60,552.31, down 0.76% from the previous day. Compared to a week ago, it fell 2.05%, but rose 2.37% compared to a month ago. The year-over-year increase stands at 105.11%.

Starting at the $61,000 range on the 4th, the price temporarily plunged to $49,513 during trading on the 5th before rebounding. Concerns over a slowdown in the U.S. economy combined with skepticism about U.S. artificial intelligence (AI) stocks dampened risk asset investment sentiment. Additionally, worries about the unwinding of yen carry trades due to yen strength acted as a catalyst. On the 5th, the KOSPI index fell by over 8%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 index recorded its largest ever drop of over 12%.

Subsequently, analyses suggested that the 'panic sell-off' was excessive, and both the stock and cryptocurrency markets rebounded. Bitcoin, which was in the low $50,000s on the 6th, recovered to $60,000 on the 9th following news that U.S. initial jobless claims had sharply decreased. According to the U.S. Department of Labor on the 8th (local time), initial jobless claims for the week of July 28 to August 3 totaled 233,000, lower than the expert forecast of 241,000 and the revised figure of 250,000 from the previous week. Notably, the decrease of 17,000 claims from the prior week was the largest drop in a year. Consequently, Bitcoin’s price rose to an intraday high of $62,000 on the 9th and was trading in the low $60,000s on the 10th.

Ben McMillan, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) of IDX Digital Assets, cited concerns over the unwinding of yen carry trades and global recession fears as causes of last week’s crash during an interview on CNBC’s 'Crypto World.' He explained, "Many investors borrowed yen at low costs over several years, using it to purchase risk assets worldwide, including in the U.S. Currently, concerns about a global recession have also emerged."

He added, "Although the numbers came out better than expected, vulnerabilities still exist from a macro perspective. Looking at the 200-day moving average, a common important benchmark in risk asset markets, Bitcoin can be seen as being technically tested. Bitcoin is currently trading at the critical resistance zone of $60,000 to $62,000, and only by breaking through this can it move higher." Conversely, if it fails to break this resistance, downward pressure is expected to continue.

According to cryptocurrency data provider Alternative, the Fear & Greed Index representing investor sentiment stood at 40 points (fear) as of that day, slightly up from 37 points (fear) last week. Alternative’s Fear & Greed Index ranges from 0, indicating extreme fear and pessimism about investing, to 100, indicating strong optimism.