Ipsos Poll Results
With the U.S. presidential election approaching this November, a poll shows that Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris leads Republican candidate former President Donald Trump by 5 percentage points. When looking only at the seven battleground states, Vice President Harris's lead narrows to 2 percentage points, indicating a close race.
According to Ipsos on the 8th (local time), a nationwide poll conducted from the 2nd to the 7th showed that Vice President Harris and former President Trump had support rates of 42% and 37%, respectively. This margin slightly exceeds the margin of error (±3%). The gap has widened from 3 percentage points in last month's poll, reaffirming Vice President Harris's lead.
However, the undecided voters still accounted for 10%. Independent Robert Kennedy Jr.'s support rate plummeted to 4% from 10% in the previous poll. Other candidates received 2%, and 3% said they would not vote.
When respondents who support independent candidates or have no preferred candidate were asked to choose between Vice President Harris and former President Trump, Trump's support rate (49%) far exceeded Harris's (35%). Among these respondents, 17% still chose not to decide.
Ipsos noted, "Although Harris's support rate is slightly ahead of Trump's, when voters who do not support either Harris or Trump are asked to choose one, the competition is tight." Reflecting the preferences of independent voters, Ipsos found that within the margin of error, Vice President Harris's support rate (49%) slightly surpasses former President Trump's (47%).
In a separate poll, Vice President Harris led former President Trump by 2 percentage points in seven battleground states including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Nevada. Harris's support rate was 42%, while Trump's was 40%. The undecided accounted for 9%, and Robert Kennedy Jr. had 5% support.
In this poll as well, when 18% of respondents who support independent candidates or have no preferred candidate were asked again to choose between Vice President Harris and former President Trump, Trump led Harris by 1 percentage point (45% to 44%). Combining all results, Harris and Trump recorded support rates of 50% and 48%, respectively, confirming Harris's 2 percentage point lead similar to the multi-candidate scenario.
Previous polls conducted ahead of the U.S. presidential election showed a neck-and-neck competition between President Joe Biden and former President Trump, with Biden even trailing in some battleground states. Before the Democratic presidential candidate was replaced, Vice President Harris's support rate was much lower than former President Trump's. However, following President Biden's withdrawal from the race, Democratic supporters have rallied around Vice President Harris, leading to a recent upward trend in polls.
U.S. voters identified inflation (50%) as the most important issue ahead of the election, followed by immigration (33%), political extremism (24%), and crime or gun violence (22%). Particularly, those who watch conservative-leaning media showed greater concern about inflation and immigration. When asked about the ability to handle economic and immigration issues, more respondents favored former President Trump. Conversely, Vice President Harris was seen as better on political extremism, abortion rights, and healthcare.
Regarding images of the candidates, former President Trump was associated with keywords such as "strange," "patriotic," and "brave," while Vice President Harris was described with keywords like "moral" and "intelligent."
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