'Wall Street Emperor' Dimon: "US Not in Recession... 60% Chance of Recession Ahead"

Jamie Dimon, CNBC Broadcast Interview

Jamie Dimon, chairman of JP Morgan Chase, known as the "Emperor of Wall Street," reaffirmed his previous outlook that the U.S. economy is more likely to enter a recession than achieve a soft landing. However, he assessed that the economy is not yet in a recession phase.

On the 7th (local time), in an interview with CNBC, Dimon was asked whether he had changed his previous stance that the market was too optimistic about the risk of a recession. He responded, "The probability is almost the same as before."

He said the chance of the U.S. economy successfully achieving a soft landing remains at 35-40%, the same as before. This suggests he places more weight on the outlook that the economy is more likely to fall into a recession than to achieve a soft landing. In an interview last April, Dimon also stated that while the market viewed the probability of a soft landing at about 70%, he saw it as roughly half that.

Dimon explained, "There is great uncertainty," adding, "As I have always pointed out, geopolitics, housing, (fiscal) deficits, spending, quantitative tightening, elections ? all of these are causing confusion in the market."

However, although credit card delinquency rates are rising, he diagnosed that the U.S. has not yet entered a recession.

Regarding future inflation prospects, he expressed being "somewhat skeptical" that the Federal Reserve (Fed) can bring inflation back to the target of 2%, reaffirming the outlook that prices could rebound due to the transition to a green economy and defense spending.

Dimon added, "I am fully optimistic that we will be okay whether we experience a mild recession or a stronger one."