Harris Leads Trump by 1% in US Presidential Election Poll... Vice Presidential Candidate to Be Announced Around the 5th

CBS·YouGov Poll Results
Harris Accepts Presidential Nomination on the 5th
Running Mate Final Interview... Announcement Expected Around the 5th

A poll has shown that Vice President Kamala Harris, who was selected as the Democratic presidential candidate in the United States, is leading former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, in nationwide approval ratings. The approval ratings in seven battleground states that will determine the outcome of the presidential election were tied, indicating a very close race. Among them, Vice President Harris is expected to formally prepare for the November general election by accepting the Democratic presidential nomination and announcing her running mate, the vice presidential candidate, on the 5th.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

According to CBS News and polling firm YouGov on the 4th (local time), a survey conducted from the 30th of last month to the 2nd of this month with 3,102 voters nationwide showed that Vice President Harris's approval rating was 50%, leading former President Trump (49%) by 1 percentage point (margin of error ±2.1%). Previously, in a survey on the 18th of last month before President Joe Biden announced he would not run for re-election, Biden's approval rating trailed former President Trump by 5 percentage points.

In this survey, the approval ratings in seven battleground states were tied at 50% each for Vice President Harris and former President Trump, with state-by-state approval ratings also showing a very close race.

In three states?Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Arizona?Vice President Harris and former President Trump had equal approval ratings. In Nevada, Harris's approval rating was 2 percentage points higher, while in Wisconsin, Georgia, and North Carolina, former President Trump led by 1 to 3 percentage points. However, both candidates' leads were within the margin of error (±4%).

As the first female vice president of the United States and the first non-white female presidential candidate, Vice President Harris's selection as the Democratic presidential candidate has strengthened the unity of the Democratic support base.

In this survey, 74% of Black voters said they would definitely vote in the presidential election, a significant increase from the 58% reported in last month's survey. Additionally, 81% of Black voters said they would vote for Vice President Harris, surpassing the 73% who said they would vote for President Biden when he was the Democratic candidate.

Looking at approval ratings by gender, 45% of men said they support Vice President Harris, while 54% supported former President Trump. Conversely, among women, 54% supported Vice President Harris and 45% supported former President Trump. CBS News noted that Vice President Harris maintains a similar level of support among men as President Biden did, while receiving more support from women.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

When asked whether the candidates have the cognitive ability to perform the duties of the presidency, 64% of respondents answered positively about Vice President Harris. In contrast, only 51% responded positively about former President Trump. With Vice President Harris in her 50s confirmed as the Democratic presidential candidate, the previous concerns about President Biden's advanced age now seem to be shifting toward former President Trump, who is in his 70s.

Meanwhile, Vice President Harris is conducting final interviews for three vice presidential candidates at her residence in Washington D.C. on the same day. The interviewees are Senator Mark Kelly (Arizona), Governor Tim Walz (Minnesota), and Governor Josh Shapiro (Pennsylvania). These candidates generally align with the view that a white, moderate male running mate would complement Harris, a woman of color and progressive candidate. Vice President Harris is expected to accept the nomination on the 5th, when the Democratic presidential candidate roll call vote concludes, and is likely to announce her vice presidential pick around the same day.

Additionally, Vice President Harris will target moderate Republican voters in battleground states who reject former President Trump. She plans to campaign this week in battleground states such as Arizona, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, alongside Republican supporters including former White House Press Secretary Stephanie Grisham, who served in Trump's first administration.