[Reading Science] The 'Nuclear Fusion Era' Accelerated by AI... Self-Reliance Over International Cooperation

Dream Technology and International Hegemony Competition
International Cooperation Case ITER Delayed Amid US-China Conflict
Continuous Emergence of Fusion Power Aiming for 2030
Korea Also Accelerates Fusion Development Through Public-Private Partnership

The interior of the international joint nuclear fusion experimental facility, ITER, is being installed. ITER was originally scheduled to operate in 2025 but has been postponed to 2023. Photo by ITER

What is essential in the era of artificial intelligence (AI) is abundant electricity. Although major big tech companies have declared carbon neutrality, it is natural that carbon emissions have increased as they establish large-scale data centers to participate in the AI era for survival. While alternatives need to be sought, there is no immediate sharp solution. One alternative drawing attention is nuclear fusion. Nuclear fusion power generates electricity through the energy released when deuterium and tritium fuse to become helium. This process produces energy exceeding 100 million degrees, earning it the nickname "artificial sun."

It may be inevitable that AI has accelerated the arrival of the nuclear fusion era, which once seemed distant. Hastening the operation of nuclear fusion power is now recognized not just as competition among companies but as a geopolitical rivalry among nations. Our government has also revised its trajectory to achieve nuclear fusion power, once considered a dream technology, in collaboration with private companies.

◇Delayed international cooperation, accelerating self-reliance= Recently, news emerged that the completion schedule of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), jointly developed by seven countries including South Korea, the United States, China, the European Union (EU), India, Japan, and Russia, has been delayed by nine years to 2034. Initially, the goal was to start operation in 2020, then postponed to 2025, and now delayed until 2034. This situation may raise concerns about dark clouds over the future of nuclear fusion, but rather, countries are accelerating the timeline for nuclear fusion realization through self-reliance. The increasing demand for electricity and changing international relations are driving the need to speed up nuclear fusion power development. Demand is creating supply.

The conflict between the United States and China and the war in Ukraine have become turning points that fundamentally change nuclear fusion power. Since joint research among nuclear powers?the U.S., China, and Russia?has become virtually impossible, the situation has shifted to competition among countries. The rivalry between the U.S. and China is particularly prominent.

The U.S. media outlet The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) recently reported that China is spending more on related technology development than the U.S. by completing a large-scale nuclear fusion technology campus and launching a national nuclear fusion consortium that includes major corporations, causing a stir. J.P. Alleine, Director of Fusion Energy Sciences at the U.S. Department of Energy, said China spends about $1.5 billion (approximately 2.07 trillion KRW) annually on nuclear fusion, nearly twice the U.S. government’s related budget. Predictions suggest that with massive budget and manpower investment, China could surpass the nuclear fusion capabilities of the U.S. and Europe within three to four years.

Facility of the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in the United States, which first succeeded in nuclear fusion ignition. Photo by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory website

It is true that the U.S. leads the Western bloc in nuclear fusion. The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), under the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), achieved the world’s first laser-based nuclear fusion ignition in 2022. This was a groundbreaking achievement as it produced more energy than was input during the fusion experiment. Nevertheless, China’s nuclear fusion push is formidable. According to Japan’s Nihon Keizai Shimbun, since 2011, China has filed the most patents worldwide in the nuclear fusion technology supply chain sector. Chinese nuclear fusion energy company Energy Singularity announced in June that its ‘Honghuang 70 (HH70)’ recently succeeded in generating plasma, bringing China one step closer to commercialization. China has also set a goal to train 1,000 nuclear fusion physicists and unveiled a draft atomic energy law including nuclear fusion earlier this year.

Considering that the U.S. Department of Energy announced in December last year a $42 million (approximately 5.47 billion KRW) investment program to establish a ‘hub’ encompassing multiple nuclear fusion research institutions, the scale of China’s government-level support for nuclear fusion is difficult to gauge.

◇Intense pressure on China... Increasing private nuclear fusion startups= In response to China’s rapid progress, the U.S. and its allies are also accelerating nuclear fusion research. In July, the UK held a groundbreaking ceremony for the STEP (Spherical Tokamak for Energy Production) nuclear fusion power plant project in Nottinghamshire, northern England, aiming for operation in the 2040s. The UK retired its experimental fusion reactor ‘JET,’ operated since the 1980s, last year after 40 years, and through STEP, set the goal to operate the world’s first nuclear fusion power plant. In experiments conducted in the latter half of last year, JET generated 69 MJ (megajoules) of energy over five seconds, setting a record for the largest energy output ever. This amount of energy could supply electricity to 12,000 households for five seconds.

The UK Atomic Energy Authority has announced plans to actively utilize AI technology to realize STEP. Since success cannot be guaranteed by merely installing large-scale equipment, the intention is to use AI in advance to simulate nuclear fusion, identify issues, and thereby shorten the probability and time to success. The Korea Institute of Fusion Energy is also actively using AI through analysis employing ‘digital twins.’

Japan, a powerhouse in nuclear fusion research, recently saw Sanae Takaichi, Minister of Economic Security, announce plans to revise the national nuclear fusion power strategy, setting the demonstration goal for the 2030s?20 years earlier than the previous target of the 2050s.

The U.S. is also focusing on alliance-building. Recently, during a visit to South Korea, a U.S. State Department science diplomacy official toured the Korea Institute of Fusion Energy’s representative research facility ‘K-Star’ and emphasized nuclear fusion research cooperation with Korea, demonstrating U.S. interest in the field.

Private sector participation is essential to gain the upper hand in competition with China. Bill Gates, founder of Microsoft, has invested in Commonwealth Fusion Systems (CFS), which originated from MIT, and Sam Altman of OpenAI has invested in Helion Energy. According to the Fusion Industry Association (FIA), about 45 nuclear fusion startups worldwide are currently competing in research. FIA membership is increasing annually. Most members are based in the U.S.?25 companies?while the UK, Germany, Japan, and China each have three members. Switzerland has two, and Australia, Canada, France, Israel, New Zealand, and Sweden each have one FIA member company.

According to the FIA’s recently released annual report, investment in nuclear fusion industry companies has exceeded $7.1 billion, but the decline in funding scale is a concern. Last year’s investment increase was $1.4 billion, half of the $2.8 billion in 2022. Andrew Holland, CEO of FIA, emphasized, “Sustained public and private investment is necessary to achieve the ambitious goals of nuclear fusion.”

Minister Lee Jong-ho of the Ministry of Science and ICT visited the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute in Yuseong-gu, Daejeon Metropolitan City on the 22nd of last month to inspect the fusion reactor 'KSTAR'. Photo by Ministry of Science and ICT

◇Accelerating nuclear fusion energy realization strategy, advancing K-fusion= As competition among countries intensifies, our government has renewed its determination not to fall behind in the nuclear fusion race. On the 22nd of last month, presided over by Minister Lee Jong-ho of the Ministry of Science and ICT, the 20th National Nuclear Fusion Committee approved the ‘Nuclear Fusion Energy Realization Acceleration Strategy.’ The core of this strategy is to promote a preliminary feasibility study within the year for a ‘Nuclear Fusion Innovative Technology Development and Infrastructure Construction Project’ worth 1.2 trillion KRW and to secure commercialization capabilities of nuclear fusion energy through public-private collaboration. The government will also promote the ‘K-Fusion Startup Project’ to support the establishment of private nuclear fusion startups. The government’s policy is to not remain limited to the achievements of the Korea Institute of Fusion Energy’s K-Star but to foster private companies and rapidly complete nuclear fusion power generation.