The Hill and Emerson University Joint Survey
Wisconsin Tied... Narrowing Gap with Biden
Former President Donald Trump, the Republican presidential candidate in the United States, was found to be slightly ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris, who is considered the Democratic candidate, in the battleground state approval ratings that will determine the outcome of the November presidential election. It is understood that the gap with former President Trump is narrowing as younger voters shift their support to Vice President Harris.
According to The Hill, a U.S. political media outlet, and Emerson College on the 25th (local time), a poll conducted from the 22nd to 23rd among 800 to 850 people in each of five battleground states showed that former President Trump led Vice President Harris in four states except Wisconsin (margin of error ±3.3~3.4 percentage points).
Former President Trump led Vice President Harris 49% to 44% in Arizona. He held a lead within the margin of error in Georgia (48% to 46%), Michigan (46% to 45%), and Pennsylvania (48% to 46%). In Wisconsin, both sides recorded an equal approval rating of 47%. Except for Arizona, all gaps were within the margin of error.
After President Joe Biden announced his intention to withdraw from the presidential race on the 21st, the Democratic Party has been narrowing the approval rating gap with former President Trump. Vice President Harris, who has reserved the Democratic presidential candidacy, recorded approval ratings 5 percentage points higher than President Biden in Georgia, 4 percentage points higher in Arizona and Wisconsin, and 3 percentage points higher in Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Spencer Kimball, head of the Emerson College poll, said, "Younger voters are shifting their support to Vice President Harris," and evaluated that "Vice President Harris has partially recovered support for the Democratic presidential candidate since the debate at the end of June."
About 80% of respondents also agreed that Vice President Harris should be officially nominated as the Democratic presidential candidate. In Arizona, 85% of respondents said Vice President Harris should be the presidential candidate, and the majority gave the same response in Georgia (82%), Michigan (77%), Pennsylvania (76%), and Wisconsin (80%).
In national polls as well, Vice President Harris is narrowing the gap with former President Trump. According to The Hill's compilation of national poll results, as of the afternoon of the 24th, former President Trump's approval rating was 48%, 2 percentage points ahead of Vice President Harris (46%), showing a lead within the margin of error. In polls conducted before President Biden's withdrawal, former President Trump was ahead of President Biden by 4 percentage points with 47% approval to Biden's 43%.
Earlier, a poll showed Vice President Harris leading former President Trump. According to Reuters and polling firm Ipsos on the 23rd, Vice President Harris recorded a 44% approval rating, leading former President Trump (42%) within the margin of error.
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