[Global Focus] "The Next 5 Years Will Be Harder" Challenges for EU's von der Leyen After Successful Reappointment

Three Obstacles EU Commission President von der Leyen Must Overcome
Uncertain External Situation, Far-Right Rise and EU Division, Criticism of Authoritarian Leadership

"Few people will miss the past five years filled with the pandemic, inflation-driven cost-of-living pressures, and war. However, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Union (EU) Commission, may soon find herself longing for those times."

This is the assessment by The New York Times (NYT) following the confirmation last week of von der Leyen’s five-year second term. Despite setting a record as the first female Commission President to be reappointed, concerns are growing locally. This reflects the challenging internal and external environment surrounding the EU. The immediate tasks include resolving the escalating political polarization within and strengthening EU-level security amid the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war externally.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

"Desire for Stability Over Change" Behind Reappointment Success

Since the establishment of the EU Commission as an executive body 66 years ago, only three Commission Presidents have succeeded in securing a second term: the late Jacques Delors (January 1985?January 1995), Jos? Manuel Barroso (November 2004?October 2014), and now Ursula von der Leyen. She is notably the first woman to achieve this milestone.

In Europe, where the rise of far-right forces has sharpened the 'rightward shift,' von der Leyen, affiliated with the center-right European People's Party (EPP), succeeded in her reappointment largely because there was a strong voice favoring 'stability over change.' During her first five-year term starting in 2019, she earned recognition for stable leadership and received overwhelming support from centrists wary of far-right forces. Politico Europe described this as a "centrist backlash," while Euronews interpreted it as "an expression of opposition to extremism."

Practically, the lack of a suitable 'Plan B' to replace her also bolstered von der Leyen’s reappointment. The Commission President is considered one of the 'leaders' of the EU, alongside the permanent President of the European Council, representing the EU externally. The role involves executive functions such as proposing legislation, implementing policies, managing and executing the budget, and handling the EU’s daily affairs.

Von der Leyen’s second term, emphasizing 'stability,' is scheduled to commence this November. The manifesto released just before the election includes a legislative package called the 'Clean Industry Deal' aimed at curbing carbon dioxide emissions while maintaining industrial competitiveness, the establishment of a defense commissioner position to build a European Defense Union, a housing commissioner role to address the housing shortage, and the deployment of border guards for external border control.

"More Challenging Than the First Term" Concerns Mount

However, there are predictions that the second five-year term will be more difficult than the first. The NYT analyzed, "The Russia-Ukraine war is entering its third year, and the possibility of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s return is approaching," adding that she will face turmoil both domestically and internationally. A senior EU official said, "It could be a very tough five years for her."

The biggest challenge facing von der Leyen’s second term is external uncertainty. As the Russia-Ukraine war drags on, the possibility of Trump’s return to the White House in the upcoming November U.S. election is also being discussed. In such a case, the 'Atlantic alliance,' which has aligned the U.S. and EU on issues ranging from support for Ukraine to China’s supply chain, will inevitably face renewed divisions. Politico Europe described her first term as a 'golden age' of EU-U.S. relations but warned, "If Trump returns, maintaining the balance of the Atlantic alliance will be difficult."

On June 18, EU leaders gathered at Blenheim Palace, Winston Churchill’s birthplace, were highly alert to bilateral relations under a potential second Trump administration, even though it was not on the official agenda. Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, has long accused Europe of 'free-riding' on U.S. security and has threatened to withdraw from NATO. His running mate, Vice Presidential candidate JD Vance, has publicly opposed support for Ukraine. All these issues shake the EU’s security concerns.

There is also a high likelihood of renewed trade wars targeting the EU, including tariffs, under a second Trump administration. Maida Ruge, a policy expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations, predicted, "If the Trump administration returns, we will suffer from economic nationalism, trade wars, and protectionism," adding, "Focusing on China, where the EU and U.S. can find common ground, could be one way for her to exert influence." Conversely, Wang Yiwei, a professor at the School of International Relations at Renmin University of China, told Global Times that "disputes between Europe and the U.S. will be difficult to resolve," and suggested it could instead be an opportunity to improve relations with China.

EU Unity Difficult Amid Far-Right Advances... Leadership Controversies

Internal EU issues are also formidable. Von der Leyen faces the challenge of leading the EU executive while responding to the actions of far-right populists, including Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orb?n. The Commission has already publicly clashed with Orb?n, who, as the rotating Council President this month, has acted as a mediator seemingly representing the entire EU while continuing pro-Russian and pro-Chinese policies.

Moreover, it is a negative factor for von der Leyen that the ruling parties in France and Germany, the EU’s two major countries, lost ground to far-right forces in last month’s European Parliament elections. Politico Europe stated, "As long as populism and far-right nationalism exist, von der Leyen should not expect a honeymoon period," and warned she will face "hellish pressure for five years." Hardline right-wing politicians within the EU have expressed opposition to von der Leyen’s pledges to build EU industrial competitiveness and a European Defense Union, citing the massive funding required. A senior EU diplomat, speaking anonymously, said, "Anything that costs money, like defense spending, will be problematic."

Additionally, von der Leyen personally faces leadership controversies. Major foreign media report that she is perceived as secretive and controlling, leading to accusations of being autocratic. She is said to insufficiently consult with other Commissioners, who are akin to cabinet ministers, during major policy decisions, leading some to mockingly call her 'Queen Ursula.' This could potentially cause internal fractures within the Commission amid uncertain domestic and international conditions.

Criticism has also been raised regarding inconsistencies in von der Leyen’s pre-election pledges, such as addressing climate change and strengthening industrial competitiveness. Mushtaq Rahman of Eurasia Group warned that in her effort to secure votes, von der Leyen issued inconsistent promises, which could lead to her own failure.