Is a Typhoon Coming During the Torrential Rainy Season? ... Typhoon No. 3 'Gaemi' Formed

Global Weather Forecast Models Predict Typhoon Moving North Toward China
KMA "Monitoring Path and Intensity Changes"

Typhoon "Gaemi," the third typhoon of the season, has formed over the sea east of Manila, Philippines. According to the Korea Meteorological Administration at 3 p.m. on the 20th, Typhoon Gaemi currently has a central pressure of 1002 hPa and a maximum sustained wind speed of 18 m/s (60 km/h), making it a small-scale typhoon. It is expected to strengthen as it passes over the warm sea during this weekend.

Typhoon Gaemi No. 3 Expected Path.
[Photo by Korea Meteorological Administration]

It is predicted to grow to a maximum wind speed of 35 m/s by next Monday and become a strong typhoon with winds around 40 m/s by Wednesday, the 25th. Gaemi is expected to maintain strong intensity as it passes near the waters around Taiwan in mid-next week and then approach close to the 30 degrees north latitude line.

However, there is significant variability among the numerical weather prediction models from various countries. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the U.S. Global Forecast System (GFS) models forecast that Gaemi will move northward toward the eastern coast of China. Since the North Pacific High is expanding and summer heat is peaking in Korea, the likelihood of the typhoon directly affecting Korea is low.

If the typhoon moves northward toward China and approaches Jeju Island and the West Sea, Korea may fall under its indirect influence, supplying a tremendous amount of tropical moisture to the country. Professor Kang Nam-Young of the Climate Science Laboratory, Department of Geography, Kyungpook National University, explained that since the current sea surface temperature is around 30 degrees Celsius and very warm, the typhoon is expected to maintain its strength even after making landfall in China. In particular, when the typhoon approaches close to Korea in the latter half of next week, the moisture brought by the typhoon may meet the cold air from the north, potentially causing heavy rainfall over the Korean Peninsula once again.

The Korea Meteorological Administration plans to continuously monitor the movement and intensity changes of Typhoon Gaemi and promptly provide related information. The name "Gaemi" was submitted by the Republic of Korea among the 14 member countries of the Typhoon Committee.