Aging Athletes to Blame?… Korea Significantly Lowers Gold Medal Target [Paris Olympics]

Minimum Goal of 5 Gold Medals
Team Size Less Than One-Third of Seoul Olympics
Only Women's Handball Team Qualifies in Ball Sports
Worst Performance Expected Since the 1980s

The outlook for South Korea at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics is not very bright. The number of athletes who have qualified has significantly decreased. Only 144 people will be dispatched. This is the smallest delegation since 50 were sent to the 1976 Montreal Games. There are concerns that public interest may be lower than usual.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

First of all, participation in team ball sports that usually attract attention has drastically decreased. The only team sport that secured a spot is women's handball. Popular sports such as soccer, basketball, and volleyball all failed to qualify for Paris. This is the main reason for the significant reduction in the size of the delegation. In other sports, there are increasing cases where performance does not meet world-class standards.

South Korea, which did not participate in the 1980 Moscow Games, sent 210 athletes to the 1984 Los Angeles Games. At the 1988 Seoul Games, it sent 477 athletes, boasting the largest delegation ever. Since then, the country has consistently sent 200 to 300 athletes, but for the first time in 48 years, it will send a delegation in the 100s.

Accordingly, the number of medals that can be targeted is expected to fall below the usual level. South Korea won six gold medals at the 1984 Los Angeles Olympics, ranking 10th in the medal standings (based on gold medals). At the 1988 Seoul Games, it achieved a remarkable feat by winning twelve gold medals and ranking 4th. At the 1992 Barcelona Olympics, it ranked 7th with twelve gold medals, and at the 1996 Atlanta Games, it ranked 10th with seven gold medals.

At the 2000 Sydney Games, South Korea slipped to 12th place (eight gold medals), but succeeded in re-entering the top 10 at the 2004 Athens Games, winning nine gold medals and ranking 9th. At the 2008 Beijing Games, it won thirteen gold medals and ranked 7th, and at the 2012 London Games, it also won thirteen gold medals and ranked 5th.

At the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Games, the number of gold medals dropped to nine, but the country maintained 8th place in the medal standings. However, at the 2021 Tokyo Games, it won only six gold medals and plummeted to 16th place. This is a poorer performance than the six gold medals won at the 1984 Los Angeles Games. The number of silver medals also dropped by two compared to then, remaining at four. It recorded the lowest medal count and ranking in history in 37 years.

The biggest reason for the recent decline in Olympic performance is analyzed to be South Korea's aging population. The population in their 20s, which plays the biggest role in the Olympics, is decreasing. For example, as of July this year, the population in their 20s is 6.07 million. This number was 7.26 million in 2008. Also, the median age in 1988 was 25.9 years. The median age is the age of the person in the middle when ages are lined up. The current median age is 46.1 years. This is too old to compete in the Olympics. Due to declining birth rates, aging, and population decrease, South Korea's competitiveness is rapidly declining.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The Korea Sports Council's goal for this Games is at least five gold medals. At this rate, the medal ranking is likely to be around 15th place. There are also bleak forecasts that the country could fall outside the top 20 in the worst case.

Some are optimistic, saying that the goal seems to have been set more cautiously than usual and that more gold medals could be won. If the strong sports of archery and fencing secure five gold medals, and taekwondo, judo, swimming, badminton, and shooting each bring in one gold medal, it is predicted that more than ten gold medals could be targeted.

Modern pentathlon, which has rapidly improved in recent international competitions, and golf, which has many variables on the day of competition, are close to gold medals, so it is by no means impossible. In fact, in April, the US data analysis company Gracenote predicted that South Korea would win nine gold medals and rank 10th in the medal standings. There is no need to give up hope in advance.