Two Major Risks for Korea's Economy... National Debt & 'Trump 2.0' [3-Minute Brief]

[3-Min Brief 3-Second Summary]
① US September Base Rate Cut Signal
② Government Maintains "Domestic Demand Recovery" Outlook
③ Ship Shortage Due to Soaring Freight Rates

MARKET INDEX

- This week’s Korean stock market focuses on the Federal Reserve and Big Tech earnings
- NH Investment & Securities projects KOSPI range between 2830 and 2950

- Seoul housing property tax rises due to increase in official property prices

Top3 NEWS

■ Positive Signs for US Interest Rate Cut in September

- June CPI inflation rate at 3%, slowing for three consecutive months
- Housing cost inflation at lowest in 2 years and 10 months
- 93% probability of interest rate cut in September

■ Government Maintains Diagnosis of 'Signs of Domestic Demand Recovery'... Inflation Seen as 'Stable'

- Recent Economic Trends July issue published
- "Economic recovery expanding thanks to domestic demand"
- Inflation assessed to be on a stable path

■ Major Central Banks Warn "This Year’s Risk is National Debt... Will Worsen if Trump 2.0 Happens"

- UBS survey of global central banks
- Record-high national debt levels are the biggest concern
- Likely to worsen if former President Trump is re-elected

Graphic News: Freight Rates Soar, Shortage of Spare Ships... Idle Vessels at Lowest in 2.5 Years

- Idle vessel ratio at lowest in 2 years and 6 months
- Concerns over missing export boom opportunities
- Increased impact on Korean companies due to rising shipments from China

the Chart: Minimum Wage to Surpass 10,000 Won for the First Time Next Year

- Minimum Wage Commission confirms next year’s minimum wage at 10,030 won
- Vote held within public interest committee’s standard proposal without labor-management agreement
- Smallest increase since 2021’s 1.5% rise

Term in the News: 'Sovereign AI' Emerges as Core Driver of AI Technological Innovation

- Rising concerns over Big Tech value dependency centered in the US
- 'Sovereign AI' reflecting native language and culture
- Korea’s 'HyperCLOVA' gaining attention

Key Schedule Today

○ Domestic
- 08:55 June Trade Balance
- 12:00 May M2 Money Supply

- 15th KOSDAQ Excel Therapeutics listing, offering price 10,000 won
- 15th KOSDAQ SK Securities No.13 SPAC subscription, offering price 2,000 won

○ Overseas
- 11:00 China Q2 GDP
- 11:00 China June Unemployment Rate
- 15:00 Germany May Retail Sales
- 15:30 India June Wholesale Price Index
- 18:00 Eurozone May Industrial Production
- 21:30 US July New York Empire State Manufacturing Index
- 21:30 Canada May Wholesale Sales

◇ Lunch & Commute Weather

○ Low temperature 23℃(0℃) ｜High temperature: 31℃(0℃)
○ Precipitation probability morning 30%｜afternoon 70%
○ Fine dust morning good｜afternoon good

3 minutes is OK, essential time-efficient economic news. Published daily at 8 AM.