"Biden or Trump, Lame Duck Within 2 Years... Korea Needs Diplomacy Focused on US Congress"

Lame Duck Within 2 Years Without Reappointment
Focus Needed on Parliamentary Diplomacy
Advantageous for Long-Term Korea-US Relations

President Joe Biden of the United States and former President Donald Trump of the United States

Regarding the upcoming U.S. presidential election in November, it is anticipated that whether President Biden or former President Trump wins, they will not be able to serve another term, which means the U.S. Congress will exert strong influence over security and economic policies two years later. It is also essential for the South Korean government to focus on congressional diplomacy in shaping the Korea-U.S. relationship.

On the 10th, Bong Young-sik, a senior research fellow at Yonsei University’s Institute for Unification Studies, appeared on ‘KBS Jeonggyeok Sisa’ and stated, “(Whichever of the two is elected) since both have already served one term, they cannot be re-elected. A lame-duck phenomenon will emerge within two years of taking office.” He added, “In that case, it will be the U.S. Congress, not the White House, that will exert strong influence over policy, and congressional checks and balances will be sufficient.”

He advised, “Conducting diplomacy that focuses on Congress will help manage the Korea-U.S. relationship positively in the long term.”

Bong cited former President Jimmy Carter as a comparable example. During Park Chung-hee’s administration, Jimmy Carter pushed for the withdrawal of U.S. troops from South Korea, but the U.S. Congress intervened and the policy was canceled.

Regarding the possibility of a summit with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un if Trump is re-elected, he said, “The possibility is open,” but added, “North Korea or Japan are not major concerns for Trump.” He explained, “The first target of America First policy is NATO member countries. It will take time before American unilateralism reaches South Korea.”

Bong especially noted, “(If Trump is re-elected) there are various possibilities, such as whether they will carefully review the policies pursued over the past four years and continue on that course, or conclude that since the previous big deal with Kim Jong-un did not yield good results, it would be better not to repeat it.”

Meanwhile, concerns about President Biden’s ‘health deterioration,’ which surfaced after the presidential debate, are losing momentum as Biden insists he will not step down. The gap in polls, where Trump had been leading, is narrowing. According to a poll conducted by Bloomberg News and Morning Consult from the 1st to the 5th, support rates were 47% for former President Trump and 45% for President Biden. Biden’s resignation theory had emerged after he struggled to answer smoothly during the presidential TV debate hosted by CNN on the 27th of last month.