[New York Diary] Biden's Fall, Growing U.S. Election Risks

"Many people who supported Biden in 2020 want a 'Plan B'.

On the 6th, the New York Times (NYT) effectively called once again for President Joe Biden to give up his presidential bid through a front-page headline. The day before, it ran the headline "Donors are pressuring Biden to withdraw from the election" (May 5), and two days earlier, "After the debate backlash, Trump's lead widens as Biden weighs his future" (May 4). As a leading progressive media outlet in the U.S., the NYT has been pressuring President Biden daily to make a decision to step down since the first presidential debate held on April 27. The sense of crisis within the American progressive camp that it will be difficult for President Biden to defeat former Republican President Donald Trump is that significant.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

After receiving a dismal report card in the TV debate, President Biden attempted to turn the tide with an interview on ABC. He tried to quell the post-debate backlash, including calls for a candidate replacement, and reassure his supporters, but evaluations suggest it was insufficient to dispel concerns about his advanced age risk. Throughout the interview, President Biden sat with his legs crossed and occasionally smiled, showing a relaxed demeanor. However, his hoarse voice remained as it was during the debate, and he could not hide the occasional tired expression. It was difficult to find a 'knockout blow' that could persuade Democratic supporters demanding Biden’s withdrawal for the sake of winning the election.

President Biden has repeatedly dismissed rumors of withdrawal and expressed his intention to complete the presidential race, but some predict it will be difficult for him to hold on. The number of Democratic members of the House of Representatives publicly calling for him not to run has already increased to five. It is also reported that some major donors who provide campaign funds are pressuring him to step down. Poll results are not in Biden’s favor either. According to a survey by the NYT and Siena College on May 3, after the TV debate, Biden’s approval rating was 41%, trailing former President Trump’s 49% by 8 percentage points. Before the debate, Biden was behind by 6 percentage points, but the gap widened after his poor debate performance.

The progressive camp has already begun searching for alternative candidates. Vice President Kamala Harris is considered the most realistic alternative. Although her presence as vice president is relatively weak, she is among the better-known alternatives and can inherit Biden’s campaign funds. The fact that she can secure votes from Black people, other people of color, and women is also seen as an advantage. However, in a hypothetical matchup against former President Trump, Harris’s approval rating is 45%, trailing Trump’s 47% by 2 percentage points (CNN poll).

As the U.S. presidential race plunges into an unpredictable fog, global political and economic uncertainties are increasing. The possibility of a 'Trump 2.0' becoming a reality has also risen due to Biden’s debate defeat and the Democratic Party’s internal strife. The market threw a 'Trump tantrum' immediately after the debate. U.S. Treasury yields soared as investors anticipated the realization of Trump’s campaign promises, such as tariff hikes and immigration restrictions, which could fuel inflation. The 'Trump risk' is difficult for us to avoid as well. If a second Trump term arrives, the Korea-U.S. relationship is expected to shift from a value-based alliance to a thorough 'give and take' approach.

As in Trump’s first term, the U.S. is likely to demand that South Korea reduce America’s trade deficit and increase defense cost-sharing. In North Korea nuclear negotiations, the U.S. may prefer direct talks with North Korea rather than Korea-U.S. cooperation. This would be a significant departure from our current position, which is based on a value alliance, established as a key country in the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy, and strategically important as a core semiconductor supply chain amid the U.S.-China advanced technology war. Even if a new Democratic candidate replaces President Biden and wins, some changes in economic and security strategies are inevitable. It is urgent to establish an active and multifaceted strategy toward the U.S. that will not be shaken by the increasingly uncertain U.S. presidential election outcome.