"Biden-Trump Rivalry Unfavorable to Democrats... Voter Turnout Expected to Decrease"

Biden at a Crossroads: Retirement or Full Term
Head-to-Head with Trump
Risk of Becoming an Unpopular Election
US Media Pressure to Resign

[Image source=Yonhap News]

As calls for U.S. President Joe Biden to withdraw his candidacy intensify, an analysis suggests that stepping down would increase the Democratic Party's chances of winning. If President Biden, who appeared incoherent during a TV debate against former President Donald Trump, continues as the Democratic candidate, the election is expected to devolve into an 'unpopular election,' leading to a significantly lower voter turnout.

On the 4th, Park Hong-min, a political science professor at the University of Wisconsin, appeared on CBS Kim Hyun-jung's News Show and stated, "The U.S. presidential election is not about persuading the moderate voters." He explained, "Voting itself is not held on a public holiday, and only those who want to vote participate in U.S. elections. When there are two unpopular candidates, voter turnout decreases, which would be disadvantageous for Biden."

He added, "If the (Democratic) candidate changes, it could raise voter turnout with a younger and more sophisticated image, increasing turnout among Black and Hispanic voters, thereby improving the (Democratic Party's) chances of winning."

Professor Park cited a New York Times report mentioning that Biden's close aides described him as having "rapidly declining cognitive abilities," "unable to finish sentences," "repeating what he said," and "forgetting previous statements." Park said, "Although the White House has released the president's health examination records and officially stated there are no (health) issues, it is difficult to consider his health good regardless of age."

Professor Park predicted that the trend in presidential election polls until next week will be a turning point in deciding whether Biden will withdraw. He said, "In the poll released today, Trump led Biden by 6 percentage points, outside the margin of error, for the first time. If the gap widens next week, the possibility of (Biden's) withdrawal will increase."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

U.S. media outlets are repeatedly pressuring President Biden to withdraw his candidacy. CNN reported that when they asked about 20 Democratic officials for their opinions, the majority believed that President Biden should give up his bid for re-election. The New York Times also published an editorial by Thomas Friedman titled "The Question President Biden Should Ask Himself," expressing the view that "it would be good to be remembered as a leader who said goodbye at the right time."

Poll results are also unfavorable to President Biden. According to a survey conducted by polling agency SSRS for CNN from the 28th to 30th of last month, involving 1,274 adults nationwide, three-quarters of American voters responded that the Democratic Party would have a better chance of winning the election if it fielded a candidate other than President Biden. Biden's approval rating was 43%, trailing former President Trump by 6 percentage points.