"Far-Right Party Likely to Struggle for Majority in France's 2nd Round of Legislative Elections... Up to 220 Seats"

In the first round of France's early parliamentary elections, the far-right party National Rally (RN), which won a landslide victory, is unlikely to secure a parliamentary majority in the second round of voting scheduled for the 7th (local time), according to a poll. Concerns over far-right rule have eased, leading to a rise in the French stock market. However, in a parliamentary deadlock where no party secures an outright majority, division and confusion in French politics are expected to be inevitable.

The de facto leader of France's far-right party National Rally (RN), Marine Le Pen
[Photo by EPA Yonhap News]

According to Harris Interactive, a polling agency, a survey conducted immediately after the registration deadline for second-round candidates among 3,383 French voters showed that the far-right RN and its allied forces are expected to win 190 to 220 seats out of the total 577 seats. This is a significant increase compared to the 89 seats secured in the 2022 general election, but it falls far short of the 289 seats needed to appoint a far-right prime minister. It also falls below the expected number of seats predicted by local media based on the first-round results.

The left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP), formed just before the general election to block RN's rise to power, is expected to secure 159 to 183 seats, placing second in the poll. The centrist coalition Ensemble, led by President Emmanuel Macron's Renaissance party, is projected to see its seats halved from 250 to less than 135. Local media analyzed this as "a symbol of how President Macron's decision to call an early election went wrong." Additionally, the Republicans are estimated to win 30 to 50 seats, and other forces 17 to 31 seats.

Poll analysts emphasized the difficulty of accurately predicting the exact number of seats at this stage. If RN's final seat count turns out to be lower than expected before and after the first round, as indicated by Harris Interactive's survey, it could be interpreted as a partial success for the anti-far-right coalition within France, known as the 'Republican Front.' Ahead of the second round, the left-wing NFP and the broader pro-government camp have largely unified their candidates to prevent far-right rule. More than 200 candidates have withdrawn, expanding the two-candidate runoff contests to over 400 constituencies. However, given the clear political differences between the left and centrist camps, whether the unified candidates opposing the far-right will actually capture the vote shares of the existing two camps remains uncertain.

If RN fails to secure an outright majority, the next French parliament is expected to be a 'Hung Parliament.' In this case, parliamentary deadlock and division will intensify, making confusion inevitable. Major foreign media reported, "No political faction will have enough seats to form a government, leading to a period of turmoil." Gabriel Attal, the prime minister in Macron's administration, acknowledged that the centrists will not hold a majority and called for "forming a pluralistic parliament."

Meanwhile, as concerns over RN's rise to power eased, the French stock market rose on the day. The French CAC index closed up 1.24% compared to the previous session. Dovish remarks on inflation progress by Jerome Powell, chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed), also supported the upward trend in European stock markets, including France.