On the 4th (local time), in the UK early general election, the ruling Conservative Party led by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is predicted to secure the fewest seats in its history, marking its 'worst defeat' yet. The main opposition Labour Party is expected to achieve a record number of seats, making a change of government almost certain.
According to the polling agency Savanta on the 3rd, in a prediction scenario released the previous day using the MRP model, the Labour Party (Lab) led by leader Keir Starmer is estimated to win 484 out of the total 650 seats. This figure far surpasses Labour's historic landslide victory of 418 seats in 1997, when Tony Blair led the party to defeat the Conservatives for the first time in 18 years and became Prime Minister.
Savanta stated, "There is a 99% probability that Labour will secure more seats in the 2024 general election than in 1997," adding, "The scale of this Labour victory is unprecedented." The MRP model refers to a method that analyzes the age, gender, and past voting tendencies of survey respondents and applies these characteristics to the age distribution and other features of each constituency to predict voting outcomes.
On the other hand, the Conservative Party (Con), which has been in power for the past 14 years, is estimated to secure only 64 seats in this election. This represents a decrease of over 300 seats from the 365 seats won in the 2019 general election. It is also the fewest seats the party has held since its founding in 1834. Several prominent Conservative politicians, including Chancellor Jeremy Hunt and former Prime Minister Theresa May, are also expected to lose their seats. Major foreign media outlets have analyzed that the Conservative stronghold of North Yorkshire, which is also Prime Minister Sunak's constituency, is at risk.
Predictions of a crushing defeat for the ruling Conservative Party have been raised well ahead of the election. Such low approval ratings reflect the high level of dissatisfaction among UK voters regarding Brexit, the pandemic, inflation caused by the Ukraine war, and a surge in illegal immigration. Additionally, scandals such as former Prime Minister Boris Johnson's party scandal and former Prime Minister Liz Truss's fiscal policy failures have fueled calls for a change in government. Earlier, a survey released last month by Savanta predicted that the Conservatives would win even fewer seats?only 53?than the Savanta MRP model forecast.
In Savanta's prediction, the Liberal Democrats (Ldem) are expected to win 61 seats, slightly fewer than the Conservatives. The Scottish National Party (SNP) is projected to secure 10 seats, and the far-right Reform UK party is expected to win 7 seats.
Savanta analyzed, "Labour and the Liberal Democrats will gain significant direct benefits from the Conservatives," noting, "The median estimate of seats moving from the Conservatives to Labour is 248, which is more than four times the 54 seats the Conservatives took from Labour in the 2019 general election." They added, "The Liberal Democrats are also expected to gain most of their 50 seats from the Conservatives."
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