Israeli Military Wants Ceasefire... There Is Another Reason Besides Ammunition Shortage

Hamas Faces 9-Month Prolonged Supply Shortage
Ultra-Orthodox Jews' Draft Refusal Controversy
Iran Provides Weapons to Hezbollah and Militias

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Is the Israeli military's strong demand for a ceasefire with Hamas to the Benjamin Netanyahu cabinet really due to a shortage of ammunition?

The Israeli military is not currently so short of ammunition that it cannot wage war immediately, but it is reportedly imposing restrictions on ammunition use out of concern over escalation with Hezbollah in northern Lebanon as well as pro-Iranian militias across the border region. Additionally, the spread of draft refusal protests among ultra-Orthodox Jews, who are exhausted from the longest confrontation with Hamas since the Middle East wars, is also believed to have influenced the call for a ceasefire.

"Tanks can't be fully loaded with shells"... Israeli military wants a ceasefire

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

The New York Times (NYT) recently cited current and former Israeli military officials, reporting that "senior Israeli military officers want a ceasefire to secure the release of hostages and allow the military to regroup." The Israeli military is suffering from shortages of ammunition and weapons due to the prolonged war and believes a ceasefire is necessary to stockpile ammunition in preparation for escalation with Hezbollah.

Another anonymous Israeli military officer told the NYT in an interview, "Some tanks in the Gaza Strip are going into battle without being fully loaded with shells. There is also a shortage of parts for military bulldozers and armored vehicles," adding, "Since last October, more than 4,000 soldiers have been injured, and countless others are suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder."

It has not yet been publicly disclosed whether the Israeli military leadership has directly conveyed the ceasefire request to Prime Minister Netanyahu. However, the NYT reported that disagreements between the military leadership and the Netanyahu cabinet over the ceasefire continue.

The Israeli military insists that Prime Minister Netanyahu's war goal of continuing the war until Hamas is annihilated is unattainable and that a realistic revision of objectives is necessary. Earlier, Daniel Hagari, the chief spokesperson for the Israeli military, emphasized in interviews with local media, "Hamas is a belief and a faction deeply rooted in the hearts of its people," and stated, "Anyone who thinks Hamas can be eliminated is mistaken."

The longest war since the Middle East wars... Controversy over ultra-Orthodox draft refusal

On the 30th of last month (local time), ultra-Orthodox Jewish Israelis in Jerusalem staged a protest against conscription.
[Image source=AP·Yonhap News]

The confrontation between Israel and Hamas is entering its ninth month. As the longest war since the Middle East wars continues, anti-war sentiment within Israel is growing stronger. In particular, protests and rallies by ultra-Orthodox Jews refusing military service are increasing, causing tension within the Netanyahu cabinet. If ultra-Orthodox parties withdraw from Netanyahu's coalition due to strong opposition, the cabinet could collapse immediately.

According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), thousands of ultra-Orthodox Jews in Israel held draft refusal protests on the 30th of last month. They declared, "We will not enlist. Send us to prison, not the army." Some protesters clashed with police and attacked public vehicles, resulting in injuries. These protests have continued since the Israeli Supreme Court ruled that there is no legal basis for the military exemption benefits for ultra-Orthodox Jews and that they must serve in the military like other citizens.

Since Israel's founding in 1948, ultra-Orthodox Jews known as 'Haredi' have been granted special military exemption privileges. They are a religious group that spends their lives studying the Torah, the Jewish scripture, in yeshivas and live in closed communities. In the early days of Israel's establishment, the Haredi played a leading role in founding the state and were granted various benefits to preserve national spirit. However, as the war prolongs and additional troop deployments become insufficient, voices demanding the conscription of the Haredi, who make up 13% of the total population, have grown louder.

Currently, ultra-Orthodox parties participating in the Netanyahu coalition, such as Shas and the Torah Judaism Alliance, have threatened to withdraw from the coalition if military exemption benefits for the Haredi are terminated, deepening the Netanyahu cabinet's dilemma.

Iran supplying weapons to Hezbollah and pro-Iranian forces... Concerns over escalation grow

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

As Israel faces internal and external turmoil, evidence is emerging that Iran is supplying weapons to Hezbollah and pro-Iranian militias in the Middle East, raising concerns that anti-Israel forces may strengthen their coordination in the future.

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), since 2022, Iran has been supporting armed groups in the Palestinian West Bank under the name of Palestinian militias, aiming to form a joint battalion. On the 1st of this month, Israeli border police and military arrested a smuggling gang attempting to smuggle firearms from Iran into the West Bank.

The Iraqi pro-Iranian militia, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, also warned in a statement that "if Israel launches a large-scale military offensive in Lebanon, it will target Israeli and American bases in Iraq and the Middle East." If a full-scale war breaks out between Israel and Hezbollah in the Lebanon border area, it is expected that pro-Iranian armed groups in the Middle East will also participate extensively.

The risk has increased that Israel's frontlines could expand from a single front with Hamas in the south to multiple directions. The ISW pointed out, "Hamas units are regrouping in the northern Gaza Strip's Shujaiya area, there are concerns about a new full-scale war with Hezbollah around Lebanon, and Palestinian militias in the West Bank may directly target Jerusalem."