Electric Vehicle Sales Growth Rate Expected to Slow
438,019 Units Sold in Q2
Estimated 6% Decrease Compared to One Year Ago
Tesla's stock price, which had been sluggish this year due to a slowdown in electric vehicle demand, has rebounded about 20% in the past month. With Tesla scheduled to announce its Q2 vehicle sales results on the 2nd (local time), attention is focused on the future direction of its stock price.
On the 1st, Tesla's stock closed at $209.6, up 6.05% from the previous trading day on the New York Stock Exchange. This is the highest level in about five months since January 19. Over the past month, it has risen 19.04%, narrowing the year-to-date decline, which once exceeded 30%, to 15.52%.
Wall Street is paying close attention to Tesla's stock movement based on its Q2 vehicle sales results. However, Tesla has emphasized since early this year that the growth rate of electric vehicle sales would significantly slow down, and in April, it carried out restructuring, including laying off 10% of its global workforce, so expectations are not very high.
According to estimates compiled by financial information firm LSEG, Tesla's Q2 vehicle sales are expected to be 438,019 units, about 6.0% lower than 466,140 units a year ago. Bloomberg's surveyed average estimate is 439,302 units, down 5.8% year-on-year. This is expected to mark the second consecutive quarterly decline following the previous quarter. This is the first time since 2012, when Tesla phased out its first model, the Roadster, that a sales slowdown has occurred.
Investors now seem to be less focused on Tesla's short-term performance. Bloomberg reported, "Investors have been ignoring several analysts who have recently lowered their estimates for Tesla's vehicle deliveries." It is analyzed that they are focusing on Tesla's long-term growth potential.
Tesla has announced plans to launch a new model by the end of the year, with a Robo-taxi unveiling scheduled for August 8. Additionally, Tesla is developing the latest version of its Full Self Driving (FSD) product and conducting FSD testing in China. Also, Tesla plans to deploy its humanoid robot Optimus at Tesla factories by the end of this year and begin external sales by the end of next year.
Some signs indicate that the electric vehicle chasm (temporary demand slowdown) is gradually passing. China's largest electric vehicle manufacturer BYD reported Q2 electric vehicle sales of 426,039 units, up about 21% year-on-year. Since Tesla's sales performance is also likely to recover, this is seen as positive for the stock price.
Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives maintained a price target of $275 in a client memo on the day, emphasizing Tesla's long-term growth. This implies about 31% upside potential from the current level. Ives optimistically stated, "Tesla is closer to an artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics company than a traditional automaker."
However, Wells Fargo maintained an underweight rating due to risks of Tesla's sales slowdown and price cuts, setting a price target of $120.
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