NATO Rushes Amid Biden's TV Debate Defeat
Rise of European Far-Right... Weakening Support Base for Ukraine
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has announced plans to establish a base in Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, and to set up a military logistics support command in Germany, signaling its intention to act as a proxy for U.S.-led support to Ukraine. This move has drawn attention to the underlying reasons, which are interpreted as preparations for the possibility that U.S. military aid to Ukraine could be completely cut off, especially with former President Donald Trump’s high chances of re-election in the upcoming U.S. presidential election this November.
Former President Trump has consistently opposed military support for Ukraine and even showcased a friendly relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin during his tenure. Therefore, if re-elected, there is a strong possibility that U.S. support policies for Ukraine could be entirely reversed. Moreover, with the recent rise of far-right forces in Europe, such as the victory of far-right parties in the French parliamentary elections, the support base for Ukraine is expected to gradually weaken.
Establishing a Base in Kyiv and a Ukrainian Military Logistics Command in Germany
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) recently cited U.S. and allied officials within NATO, reporting that "as part of a long-term support plan for Ukraine, NATO plans to establish a base in Kyiv and dispatch senior civilian officials. Additionally, a military logistics command to support Ukraine will be established in Wiesbaden, Germany."
The newly established logistics command will be staffed by 700 personnel recruited from the 32 member countries and will take over the role of providing weapons support and training to the Ukrainian military, which has primarily been carried out by U.S. forces since the Russia-Ukraine war began. If implemented, this measure is expected to ensure that support through NATO continues even if the U.S. reduces or completely halts military aid to Ukraine in the future.
Former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Ivo Daalder told WSJ in an interview, "This measure is intended to prepare for a significant weakening of military support for Ukraine after former President Trump’s potential re-election. If NATO, rather than the U.S., manages military support and training, even if a future U.S. administration reduces aid, the support mechanism will not be entirely eliminated."
NATO plans to officially announce this plan at the NATO summit scheduled for June 9 in Washington, D.C. Currently, NATO member countries are negotiating conditions to share the approximately $40 billion (about 55 trillion KRW) annual military aid budget for Ukraine.
Growing Concerns Over Trump’s Re-election Following Biden’s TV Debate Defeat
NATO’s heightened attention to the U.S. presidential election stems from the recent surge in calls for President Joe Biden to withdraw his candidacy following the presidential candidate TV debate.
U.S. CBS News, in collaboration with polling firm YouGov, reported that in a survey conducted from May 28 to 29 among 1,130 registered voters immediately after the May 27 debate, 72% responded that President Biden should not run for re-election. This is a 9 percentage point increase from the 63% recorded in February.
Particularly, Biden’s stuttering and vacant stares during the debate, in contrast to former President Trump, have intensified concerns about his advanced age, fueling calls for his withdrawal.
Even Jay Parini, a poet and novelist who has been a longtime friend of Biden, published an open letter titled "Joe, It’s Time to Go" on CNN the day after the debate, strongly urging Biden to withdraw. Parini is a close neighbor and supporter from Biden’s hometown of Scranton, Pennsylvania, and their families are also close.
In the letter, Parini wrote, "Everything is fine, but now you are old like me. Our bodies are not as cooperative as before, and sometimes it’s hard to get up in the morning," adding, "You must step down. Please do so for the country and the party. The threat of the conman and swindler Trump ruling for another four years is existential."
First Far-Right Victory in French Parliamentary Elections Weakens Support for Ukraine
Not only in the U.S., but also in France, where recent parliamentary elections were held, the rise of far-right forces is expected to further weaken the support base for military aid to Ukraine.
In the first round of the early parliamentary elections held on May 30, the far-right party Rassemblement National (RN) won with 33.1% of the vote. The left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP) came in second with 28%, while President Emmanuel Macron’s ruling party Renaissance and its allied coalition Ensemble suffered a crushing defeat with 20%, placing third.
RN’s victory has raised concerns that public opinion in France supporting Ukraine will weaken further. RN has consistently opposed military aid to Ukraine since the war began, and Marine Le Pen, the party’s de facto leader, has advocated negotiations with Russia. In an interview with the Spanish daily El Peri?dico on May 17, Le Pen stated, "To achieve a positive resolution from a war that Ukraine clearly cannot win, dialogue with Russia is necessary."
Meanwhile, Hungary, which assumed the rotating presidency of the EU on June 1, announced plans to form a right-wing political group with neighboring Eastern European far-right parties. According to Politico, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orb?n’s far-right Fidesz party, Austria’s far-right Freedom Party led by Herbert Kickl, and the Czech Republic’s far-right ANO party led by former Prime Minister Andrej Babi? are forming a parliamentary group in the European Parliament called "Europe of Patriots." They continue to advocate for early resolution of the Ukraine war through negotiations with Russia.
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