Victory of French Far-Right with 33% Vote Share... Macron's Defeat Shocks Europe (Summary)

'Far-right' National Union Expected to Secure Up to 280 Seats
Triple the Number Compared to 2 Years Ago... Ruling Coalition Drops Below Half
Second Round of Voting Scheduled for the 7th

In France, the first round of the early general election held on the 30th of last month (local time) resulted in a victory for the far-right party Rassemblement National (RN), making it highly likely to become the first-ever majority party in the National Assembly. While President Emmanuel Macron's ruling party Renaissance and the broader pro-government coalition Ensemble suffered a crushing defeat, this outcome is expected to have a significant impact not only on French politics but also on the political landscape across Europe.

According to France 24 and other sources, the French Ministry of the Interior officially announced on the 1st that RN and its allied forces secured 33.15% of the vote, ranking first. The left-wing coalition Nouvelle Union Populaire ?cologique et Sociale (NUPES) received 27.99%, and the pro-government coalition Ensemble garnered only 20.04% of the vote.

Marine Le Pen, the de facto leader of the French far-right party Rassemblement National (RN)
[Photo by AP]

Based on the vote shares, media outlets project that out of the total 577 seats, the far-right forces will hold between 230 and 280 seats, NUPES between 125 and 165 seats, and the pro-government coalition between 70 and 100 seats. In the 2022 general election, these three camps held 89, 131, and 245 seats respectively. However, in just two years, the far-right has tripled its number of seats, while President Macron’s camp has seen its seats reduced to less than half.

The far-right party, since its founding as the Front National (FN), the predecessor of RN, has become the largest party for the first time in 52 years, bringing the prospect of producing the Prime Minister within reach. Marine Le Pen, the de facto leader of RN, stated at a press conference, "Democracy has spoken," adding, "Voters have clearly expressed their desire to end Macron’s seven years of contemptuous and corrupt power." She also cautioned, "This is not yet a victory. The second round is decisive," and urged, "Please prevent France from falling into the hands of violent far-left parties."

Under French election law, to be elected in the first round, a candidate must secure at least 25% of registered voters in the constituency and more than 50% of the votes cast on the day. The second round of voting for constituencies without a winner will be held on the 7th. In the first round, 76 winners were decided. Marine Le Pen was re-elected in her constituency with 58% of the vote, while none of Macron’s government ministers won in the first round.

If RN secures the largest number of seats after the second round, resulting in a minority government, France will see the formation of its fourth "cohabitation government" in 27 years. Although President Macron has stated he will not resign even if he loses the general election, it is expected that many of the reforms he planned will be either scrapped or require significant changes in direction.

French President Emmanuel Macron [Photo by Reuters]

In a statement, President Macron said, "The high turnout in the first round reflects the importance of this election and the French people's desire to clarify the political situation," and appealed, "The time has come for democratic and republican unity against RN in the second round."

With the French far-right achieving a major victory in this general election following their success in last month’s European Parliament elections, the strengthening of far-right forces within Europe is expected to accelerate. The British daily The Guardian reported that if France, one of the EU’s two main pillars alongside Germany, turns skeptical of European integration, the EU could suffer a significant blow and face major constraints in policy implementation, and that preparations are underway for such a "nightmare" scenario.

Meanwhile, the turnout for this early general election was finalized at 66.7%, 19.2 percentage points higher than the 47.5% turnout in the first round of the 2022 general election. This surge in voter interest is attributed to the rise of the far-right RN and President Macron’s sudden announcement of the early election.