Exit polls from the first round of France's early legislative elections showed the far-right party Rassemblement National (RN) taking first place. President Emmanuel Macron's gamble to block the far-right surge through a surprise early election has ultimately backfired. Riding this momentum, RN is determined to secure a majority of seats in the second round and make history by producing the first far-right prime minister. Regardless of whether a majority is achieved, concerns are mounting over inevitable political chaos in France.
French President Emmanuel Macron is seen leaving a polling station in Lettuce, northern France, after casting his vote in the first round of the general election on the 30th of last month (local time). [Image source=EPA Yonhap News]
"No Upset" RN Leads in First Round Exit Polls
According to exit polls by the polling agency Ipsos, RN was estimated to receive 33.5% of the vote in the first round held on May 30 (local time). Following RN, the left-wing alliance Nouvelle Union Populaire ?cologique et Sociale (NUPES) was projected at 28.1%, and President Macron’s ruling party Renaissance’s Ensemble coalition was expected to get 20.7%. Exit polls released by BFM TV also showed RN leading with 33%, far ahead of NUPES (28.5%) and Ensemble (22%), effectively securing the position of the largest party.
Locally, the results were similar to previous polls, leading to assessments that "there was no upset." RN had already confirmed a far-right surge in the European Parliament elections with a vote share (31.5%) roughly double that of the ruling Renaissance party (14.6%). Notably, the first-round turnout reached a provisional 67%, the highest in the past decade, fueled by the sudden announcement of early elections following the European Parliament vote, accumulated dissatisfaction with the Macron administration, and fears of the first-ever far-right majority party emerging.
However, it remains uncertain whether RN can secure an outright majority in the National Assembly. ELABE, citing BFM TV exit polls, estimated RN would win between 255 and 295 seats. NUPES was projected to secure 120 to 140 seats, and Ensemble 90 to 125 seats. The French National Assembly has 577 seats, requiring at least 289 for a majority.
Marine Le Pen, the de facto leader of RN, welcomed the results at a press conference, calling it "a clear vote showing the will of the French people," but cautioned, "This is not yet a victory. Please give us an absolute majority in the second round so that RN leader Jordan Bardella can be appointed prime minister." Meanwhile, President Macron appealed in a statement, saying, "The second round requires broad and clear democratic and republican unity against RN." Jean-Luc M?lenchon, leader of La France Insoumise (LFI) within the NUPES alliance, emphasized, "The best choice to oppose RN is NUPES."
The second round, scheduled for July 7, will feature candidates who received at least 12.5% of registered voters' support in the first round or the top two vote-getters competing head-to-head, with the highest vote-getter winning. Accordingly, each party must finalize its list of second-round candidates within 48 hours. Major foreign media reported that intense negotiations between the left-wing alliance and the centrist coalition are expected to prevent the far-right RN from taking power. Leaders of the four parties within NUPES have also stated that in constituencies with three-way contests, candidates from the third-place party should withdraw.
Macron’s Gamble Deemed a Failure
Following the first-round results, major foreign media and analysts have widely labeled it as "President Macron’s failed gamble" and a "backfire." The strategy to attract moderate voters concerned about the far-right surge and overturn the situation instead strengthened RN. The Economist reported, "The president’s gamble has largely failed." One lawmaker described projections that the Renaissance-led Ensemble coalition, currently holding around 250 seats, might be reduced to about 120 seats as a "complete disaster." The Washington Post also reported from Paris that "voters punished President Macron and encouraged the far-right."
If RN ultimately secures a majority of seats, France will see its first far-right prime minister since the emergence of far-right parties in 1972. RN leader Bardella has stated he would only accept the prime minister position if RN wins an outright majority. This would mark the fourth time in history that a so-called ‘cohabitation government’?where the president and prime minister belong to different parties?would be formed, further narrowing President Macron’s political space. Not only would Macron’s reform agenda be curtailed, but pro-European and pro-business policies could be replaced by RN’s Euroscepticism, anti-immigration stance, and populist policies.
Since RN is unlikely to secure an outright majority in this election, a ‘Hung Parliament’ scenario is highly probable. However, this too is expected to lead to political turmoil in France. Mustafa Rahman of the political consulting firm Eurasia Group predicted, "There will be irreconcilable parliamentary deadlock and chaos," adding, "This is bad news not only for France but also for the European Union (EU) and Ukraine." G?rard Araud, former French ambassador to the United States, assessed, "France’s crisis has only just begun." Protests opposing the far-right’s rise to power have also taken place in locations such as Place de la R?publique in Paris, with thousands participating.
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