[Market ING] Eyes on Samsung Electronics' Earnings... KOSPI Expected Between 2720 and 2840

This week, the domestic stock market is expected to be mainly influenced by whether the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will shift its monetary policy and expectations for domestic corporate earnings. Securities firms have projected the KOSPI expected range to be between 2720 and 2840 points.

On the 27th, the KOSPI index opened at 2767.62, down 24.43 points from the previous trading day, as dealers were working in the Hana Bank dealing room in Jung-gu, Seoul. On the same day, the won-dollar exchange rate started trading at 1394.4 won, up 5.7 won from the previous trading day. Photo by Kang Jin-hyung aymsdream@

According to the Korea Exchange on the 30th, the KOSPI index closed last week (24th?28th) at 1797.82, up 13.56 points for the week. During this period, foreign investors led the index by net buying 510 billion KRW, while institutions and individuals net sold 546 billion KRW and 11.2 billion KRW, respectively. Over the same period, the KOSDAQ index fell 12.2 points (1.43%) to 840.44.

This week, market attention is focused on the possibility of the Fed shifting its monetary policy due to easing inflation indicators and on corporate earnings. This is because the inflation indicators that the Fed emphasizes have slowed down since May. The U.S. Department of Commerce reported that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.6% in May compared to the same month last year.

This figure aligns with the expert forecasts compiled by Dow Jones. Following the improvement in the May Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate and the slowdown in the PCE price index, expectations have grown that the Fed may increase the number of rate cuts within this year.

Kim Young-hwan, a researcher at NH Investment & Securities, explained, "Overall economic indicators are expected to support a mild economic slowdown and price stabilization. This is likely to form stable investor expectations regarding the future path of the Fed's monetary policy, which could have a favorable effect on global financial markets."

Lee Kyung-min, a researcher at Daishin Securities, analyzed, "Employment and major economic indicators are scheduled to be announced, and the ISM manufacturing index has shown a three-month consecutive export phase, indicating that the economic slowdown is becoming visible. The June FOMC minutes will be released on the 4th, and if a dovish stance is confirmed, expectations for a rate cut at the July FOMC could emerge, and the dollar strength pressure that had triggered global financial market anxiety is expected to ease."

The 5th, when Samsung Electronics' preliminary Q2 earnings report will be released, is also a point of market interest. If Samsung Electronics' earnings improve, expectations for the earnings season could spread across large-cap stocks.

External events that could affect market volatility are also scheduled. On the 30th, the first round of the French early general election will take place, and on July 4th, the UK early general election is scheduled. As countries leading the global capital markets, the domestic stock market is inevitably influenced by the election results. If political uncertainty intensifies, causing the euro to weaken and thereby stimulating dollar strength, it could act as a negative factor for the domestic stock market.

Meanwhile, NH Investment & Securities forecast the KOSPI expected range this week to be between 2720 and 2840 points.