Research Results from Korea Employment Information Service
Among 17 Provinces, Jeonnam Has the Highest Risk of Disappearance
Busan Metropolitan City has been identified as the first metropolitan city to enter the 'extinction risk' stage, according to a recent study.
On the 28th, the Korea Employment Information Service released the study titled "Status and Characteristics of Extinction Risk Areas as of March 2024" in the summer issue of the quarterly journal "Regional Industry and Employment." Researcher Lee Sang-ho, who conducted the study, analyzed extinction risk areas using resident registration population statistics from Statistics Korea. The study calculated the extinction risk index by dividing the population of women aged 20-39 (prime childbearing age) by the population aged 65 and older. Among the 17 metropolitan cities and provinces, seven were identified as extinction risk areas.
An extinction risk index of 1.5 or higher indicates low extinction risk, 1.0 to 1.5 is moderate, 0.5 to 1.0 is caution, 0.2 to 0.5 is 'extinction risk,' and below 0.2 is 'high extinction risk.' The national average extinction risk index was 0.615. By region, Jeonnam (0.329), Gyeongbuk (0.346), Gangwon (0.388), Jeonbuk (0.394), Gyeongnam (0.444), Chungnam (0.464), Chungbuk (0.487), Busan (0.490), Daegu (0.553), Jeju (0.590), Ulsan (0.636), Gwangju (0.732), Incheon (0.735), Gyeonggi (0.781), Seoul (0.810), and Sejong (1.113) showed the highest extinction risks in that order.
Jeonnam, Gyeongbuk, Gangwon, and Jeonbuk recorded extinction risk indices in the 0.3 range. Jeonnam, with the lowest index, had a total population of 1,798,000, which decreased by 5.1% compared to ten years ago, and notably, the female population aged 20-39 dropped by 23.4%. Therefore, while Jeonnam's population accounts for 8.7% of the total population, the proportion of elderly population is as high as 26.4%.
Out of 288 cities, counties, and districts, 130 (57.0%) were classified as extinction risk areas, exceeding half. There were also 57 'high extinction risk' areas where the female population aged 20-39 was less than one-fifth of the population aged 65 and older. Among the 11 newly designated extinction risk areas, eight were located in metropolitan cities. These included four districts in Busan?Buk-gu, Sasang-gu, Haeundae-gu, Dongnae-gu?Daegu Dong-gu, Daejeon Jung-gu and Dong-gu, and Ulsan Ulju-gun, while the remaining three were Mokpo-si and Muan-gun in Jeonnam, and Jeungpyeong-gun in Chungbuk. Among the 17 metropolitan cities and provinces, there were no areas with an extinction risk index of 1.5 or higher, which would indicate low risk.
Excluding Seoul, 21 out of 45 districts and counties in metropolitan cities (46.7%) were classified as extinction risk areas. By region, Busan had the highest number with 11, followed by Daegu with 3, Daejeon with 2, and Incheon with 1. Yeongdo-gu in Busan had the lowest extinction risk index among metropolitan city districts at 0.256. Compared to 2017, when Yeongdo-gu first entered the extinction risk category, the female population aged 20-39 decreased by 11.4%, but the population aged 65 and older surged by 73.5%, lowering the extinction risk index.
Extinction risk areas are expected to see a widening gap between the elderly and younger populations over time. Based on population projections from Statistics Korea, it is anticipated that Busan's total population will decrease by one-quarter in 30 years, the female population aged 20-39 will be reduced by more than half, while the population aged 65 and older will increase by about two-thirds.
Researcher Lee explained, "The steady increase in extinction risk areas until recently indicates that, similar to low birthrate measures, policies addressing regional extinction have not achieved significant results." He added, "The trajectory these areas will follow depends not only on the demographic composition and industrial and socio-cultural characteristics of the regions but also on the policy responses from both central and local governments."
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
