Can North Korea's Claim of Successful MIRV Be Trusted? [Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club]

North Korea Reveals Photos Showing Success in Multi-Warhead and Guided Control Tests
Low Altitude Test Impossible, Curvy Trajectory Also Questioned

North Korea claims to have succeeded in testing a multiple warhead missile, drawing attention to the veracity of the claim. While North Korea has released photos to assert the success of the test, our military places more weight on the possibility of an airburst.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 27th, the Korean Central News Agency stated, "In the ballistic missile launch the previous day, we succeeded in the 'separation and guidance control test of individual maneuvering warheads,'" adding, "We used the first stage engine of a solid-fuel ballistic missile for medium to long range, and the separated maneuvering warheads were accurately guided to three target coordinates." This is the first time a multiple warhead missile test has been reported.

The individual maneuvering warheads North Korea refers to are known by the English acronym ‘MIRV’?Multiple Independently targetable Reentry Vehicles. This means that multiple warheads carried on a single missile body are launched and reenter the atmosphere toward separate individual targets, effectively allowing one missile to hit multiple targets. It is a highly advanced technology applied to the United States’ nuclear warhead intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), the Minuteman-III. If North Korea develops a MIRV-equipped ICBM and launches it toward the U.S., it would mean that one missile could strike multiple cities such as Washington D.C. and New York, posing a significant threat.

Yang Wook, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said, "North Korea claimed in April to demonstrate new deterrence capabilities with its hypersonic missile," adding, "Considering North Korea’s announcement and the altitude analyzed by the military, it is possible that a multiple warhead test was conducted."

On the other hand, there are criticisms pointing out several flaws in North Korea’s claims, labeling them as deception and exaggeration. The missile launched the previous day was confirmed to have flown about 250 km. The Joint Chiefs of Staff analyzed that the missile launched from Pyongyang exploded in the air over the sea east of Wonsan. North Korea also stated that the test was conducted within a radius of 170 to 200 km, favorable for measuring the flight characteristics of the individual maneuvering warheads, which roughly aligns with the flight distance.

The issue lies in the altitude. Japanese authorities observed that the peak altitude of the North Korean missile was about 100 km. This altitude is considered too low to test multiple warheads, supporting the Joint Chiefs of Staff’s analysis that it was an airburst.

In particular, North Korea released photos with the explanation of ‘separation of individual maneuvering warheads,’ showing contrails represented by white smoke splitting into two or more. If the altitude was below 100 km, it is highly likely that the separated contrails occurred during the missile’s ascent phase. It could be a scene where the first stage engine of the missile simply detached from the body after combustion ended, rather than individual maneuvering warheads.

Lee Sung-jun, the spokesperson for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at a regular briefing that day, "The photos released by North Korea are a means of deception and exaggeration," adding, "The photos resemble those of the Hwasong-17 liquid-fueled ICBM launched on March 16 last year."