[Energytopia] The Rising Futility of the Basic Electricity Supply and Demand Plan

Despite Issues Like Politicization of Ideology
Significant Role in Stable Power Supply in Korea
Must Adapt to Changing Times While Preserving Strengths

"The Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand should now be abolished."

On the 21st, at the 11th Emergency Forum on the Basic Plan for Electricity Supply and Demand (BPE) held at the National Assembly Members' Office Building in Yeouido, Seoul, this was the opening remark by Representative Lee So-young, who leads the Democratic Party of Korea's Climate Action Parliamentary Group 'Emergency,' the event's host. She argued that not only the contents but the BPE itself should be eliminated.

Professor Jung Dong-wook of Chung-Ang University's Department of Energy Systems Engineering, who came to present that day, momentarily stiffened. Professor Jung had served as the chair of the working committee for the 11th BPE draft. As expected, during his presentation, he expressed his disappointment, saying, "Over 100 committee members worked hard for 18 months, but hearing the representative's words might be hurtful." Although the event was titled a forum, it resembled a hearing. Another BPE forum was held on the 26th, hosted by Democratic Party Representative Han Jeong-ae.

Since the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy released the 11th BPE draft on the 31st of last month, a strong backlash has ensued. Environmental organizations such as Climate Solution and Plan 1.5 have systematically refuted the BPE's contents, with opposition parties joining in agreement.

The share of renewable energy generation by 2030 is set at 21.6%, which is among the lowest levels in the OECD member countries, making it grossly insufficient for achieving carbon neutrality by 2050. Issues have also been raised regarding the expansion of fossil fuel-based liquefied natural gas (LNG), and the increased share of nuclear power plants, including small modular reactors (SMRs) still under technological development and nuclear plants facing safety and local acceptance challenges.

The government and committee members involved in drafting the plan emphasize that solar and wind power capacity will expand more than threefold from 23 gigawatts (GW) in 2022 to 72 GW by 2030. They also argue that until zero-carbon power technologies such as hydrogen are introduced, LNG generation, which emits less carbon than coal-fired power, must be temporarily expanded. They maintain that nuclear power is necessary due to the expected surge in electricity demand driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and the spread of electric vehicles.

Putting aside debates over the BPE's content, claims that the BPE itself has reached the end of its life are beginning to emerge. Representative Lee stated, "Globally, only Mexico and South Korea have state-led electricity supply and demand plans," and argued, "It is time to shift to an outlook approach." She suggests that the government should provide only broad forecasts and leave electricity supply to market mechanisms.

Academia and experts also share concerns about the current method of establishing the BPE. During the past period of rapid growth, the centrally planned BPE played a role in supporting economic growth, but after the 8th (nuclear phase-out) and 9th (coal phase-out) plans, criticisms arose that the BPE had become a tool to realize political ideologies. The 11th BPE is also criticized by opposition parties as a "pretext to justify nuclear power expansion."

Of course, committee members involved in the drafting rebut, saying, "There was no government intervention or guidelines at all." They also point out the limitations of the BPE, noting the increased number of private power producers and the difficulty in predicting future electricity demand due to various variables.

Although the BPE has recently been distorted, an abrupt shift to an outlook approach could also be risky. The stable electricity supply in South Korea today owes much to the role of the BPE. Professor Jung evaluated, "Our country's BPE is of such a high standard that it could be exported overseas as intellectual property." It is now time to introduce a new electricity plan that preserves the strengths of the BPE while adapting to changing times.