Trading Around $64,000... Investor Fear Rises Amid Box Range Movement [Bitcoin Now]

Germany Government Holds 4th Largest Bitcoin Reserves Last Week
Bitcoin Price Drops as Government Begins Selling
US July Interest Rate Cut Unlikely

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The leading virtual asset Bitcoin price is consolidating in the $64,000 range as of the 23rd (Korean time). Bitcoin started at the $66,000 level on the 17th, fluctuated continuously, and then experienced a gradual decline over the past week. In the market, there is an analysis that the box range movement of Bitcoin, which is consolidating away from the $70,000 level, has maximized fear among market participants.

According to the global virtual asset market tracking site CoinMarketCap, as of 9:47 AM on the 23rd (Korean time), Bitcoin is priced at $64,466.68, up 0.75% from the previous day. Compared to a week ago, it has fallen 2.57%, and compared to a month ago, it has dropped 5.01%. The year-over-year increase rate stands at 114.89%.

Last week's Bitcoin decline is presumed to be due to the German government's sale of Bitcoin, known to hold the fourth-largest amount of Bitcoin in the world. Earlier, in January this year, the German government seized 50,000 Bitcoins from the illegal movie site 'Movie2k,' ranking fourth in national holdings. As the German government sold part of its Bitcoin holdings, the Bitcoin price fell below $65,000. On June 19 and 20, German investigative authorities transferred 1,500 and 200 Bitcoins respectively to various exchanges, which indicates sales. Joo Ki-young, CEO of CryptoQuant, explained on the night of the 20th that the Bitcoin price drop was "probably related to the German government's Bitcoin sales through the Coinbase exchange." The German government still holds 47,179 Bitcoins, so further sales are possible.

The virtual asset analysis company Santiment analyzed in a post on X (formerly Twitter) on the 20th that fear and doubt among investors in the Bitcoin market have increased. Photo by X capture

The possibility of a US interest rate cut in July is currently slim. After the June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement reduced the expected number of rate cuts this year from three to one, the US securities market expects the Fed's rate cut timing to be delayed to September or November. According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange Group (CME) FedWatch, participants in the federal funds rate (FF) futures market estimated the probability of a July cut at 8.3%, significantly lower than the previous 12.6%.

Positive momentum continues in the US manufacturing sector as well. The US Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) reached its highest level in two years. According to S&P Global on the 21st (local time), the US June Services PMI rose to 55.1 from 54.8 the previous month, marking 17 consecutive months of growth. It exceeded the Wall Street forecast of 53.4 and is the highest in 26 months. The US Manufacturing PMI also increased to 51.7 from 51.3 the previous month, surpassing the estimate of 51.

Some in the market analyze that as Bitcoin prices stagnate, investors' fear, uncertainty, and doubt have intensified. Virtual asset analytics firm Santiment posted on X (formerly Twitter) on the 20th, stating, "When Bitcoin prices are between $65,000 and $66,000, the public mainly feels fear or indifference," and added, "It is rare for FUD (fear, uncertainty, doubt) to persist for such a long time because investors continue to sell." They further noted, "Bitcoin investors' fatigue grows, and after whales accumulate, a market rebound comes where those who suffered are rewarded."

According to virtual asset data provider Alternative, as of this date, the Fear & Greed Index, which expresses investor sentiment as an index, stands at 55 points (Greed). This is the same rating as last week's 71 points (Greed), but the index difference is significant. Alternative's Fear & Greed Index means that a score closer to 0 indicates extreme fear and pessimism about investing, while a score near 100 indicates optimism.