Putin to Visit Pyongyang for the First Time in 24 Years, Expected to Arrive Tomorrow
Talks of 'Military Intervention' Level Agreement... "Low Possibility"
Expected to Announce New Joint Declaration Advancing Friendship Treaty
Russian President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit Pyongyang around tomorrow. There are speculations that a new treaty at the level of the 'alliance' previously established between North Korea and the Soviet Union may be signed, making it inevitable that the regional situation will be affected. North Korea is expected to try to resolve both internal turmoil and external risks by giving maximum 'political significance' to President Putin's visit.
According to diplomatic sources on the 17th, President Putin will visit North Korea on the 18th and 19th. This is his first visit to North Korea in 24 years since July 2000, when Kim Jong-il was in power. It is also a reunion with Chairman Kim Jong-un just nine months after their summit in September last year. Neither the Kremlin nor the North Korean side has disclosed a separate schedule. There is speculation that related announcements may be made to coincide with President Putin's arrival in Pyongyang.
North Korean State Chairman Kim Jong-un and Russian President Vladimir Putin met at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Amur Oblast, Russia, in September 2023. [Image source=Yonhap News]
So far, it is presumed that North Korea has supplied conventional weapons to the Ukrainian battlefield in exchange for Russia's technical support. In addition, authorities assess that North Korea strongly desires the transfer of Russia's advanced military technology, so-called 'game changer' weapon technology. However, Russia is also under great strain due to the prolonged war. Recently, having been put on the defensive by 'homeland strikes' and other factors, it is best to avoid actions that could provoke the West as much as possible. It is believed that Russia will regulate the level of cooperation by elevating bilateral relations to a new level rather than providing military technology.
Attention is focused on the redefinition of this relationship. Earlier, Choe Son-hui, North Korea's Foreign Minister, announced after visiting Russia in January that both sides had reached 'consensus and agreement to elevate the relationship to a new legal basis in a strategic direction.'
North Korea and Russia signed a 'Friendship Treaty' to strengthen economic cooperation in February 2000, and after the summit in July of the same year, they issued a joint declaration based on this treaty. The 'automatic military intervention' clause included in the alliance treaty during the Soviet era was removed at that time. Some speculate that the treaty to be signed during this North Korea-Russia summit may include an agreement on 'automatic military intervention' or a similar level of commitment.
The possibility is low. If Russia explicitly states military intervention in North Korea, South Korea would have justification to supply weapons to Ukraine. Russia, currently on the defensive in the war, has recently sent conciliatory messages to South Korea. On the 5th, President Putin publicly expressed gratitude, saying, "I am very thankful to South Korea for not directly supplying weapons to Ukraine."
Joh Han-beom, Senior Research Fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, evaluated, "The possibility of an agreement at the level of military intervention is slim, and it will likely be at the level of redefining traditional friendly relations such as a 'strategic partnership.'" He added, "From Kim Jong-un's perspective, just Putin's visit can politically resolve internal confusion caused by the abolition of the united front strategy, the awkward relationship with China, and both internal and external difficulties. It is unlikely that Russia will provide core military technology, and it is expected that mutual understanding will be met in the future by accepting North Korean workers at reconstruction sites."
The government plans to set its response level according to the closeness of North Korea-Russia ties. Jang Ho-jin, Director of the National Security Office, warned the day before, saying, "We have also communicated a warning to Russia not to cross a certain line," and added, "Think carefully about which side, North or South Korea, will be more important to Russia after the Ukraine war ends." The fact that the South Korean government and China will hold a 'Diplomatic and Security Dialogue' in Seoul on the 18th, when President Putin is scheduled to arrive in Pyongyang, is also a key point in this week's 'Korean Peninsula diplomatic battle.' This is a continuation of high-level exchanges following the South Korea-China-Japan summit and an upgrade to vice-ministerial level for the first time in nine years.
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