Putin Visits North Korea, China Keeps Distance... Unusual Trends in North Korea-China-Russia Relations

Putin to Visit North Korea Early Next Week for the First Time in 24 Years
Concerns Over Increased Military Cooperation Including 'Military Intervention in North Korea'
China Holds Diplomatic Security Talks with South Korea During Putin's Visit

Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to visit North Korea soon. Analysts suggest that our government must exercise diplomatic power to prevent the scenario from unfolding in a way favorable to North Korea. It is argued that China, which is distancing itself from the North Korea-China-Russia alliance, should be drawn closer.

A senior official from the Presidential Office stated on the 13th, "Around the time of President Putin's upcoming visit to North Korea, South Korea and China will hold diplomatic and security strategic talks." The official added, "Taking all of this into consideration, we will continue our tours thoroughly to ensure that key neighboring allies and our strategic partners align with South Korea on the North Korean issue."

In September 2023, Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un met at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Amur Oblast, Russia.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

If President Putin visits North Korea, it will be the first time in 24 years since July 2000. He will reunite with North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un nine months after their summit held last September at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia's Far East. There is speculation about the emergence of a new level of military cooperation model. It is anticipated that an agreement inheriting the spirit of the 1961 'Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance' between the former Soviet Union and North Korea could be made. This treaty included an 'automatic military intervention clause,' but it was discarded after the Soviet Union established diplomatic relations with South Korea and did not renew the treaty.

Russia continues its confrontation with the West amid the war in Ukraine. Recently, the United States and others have allowed Ukraine to use their weapons to strike Russian territory, putting Russia on the defensive. North Korea, practically Russia's only ally, has become more important. North Korea also needs Russia to evade sanctions. This is a survival-based close relationship. It is reported that North Korea has received considerable support in preparing to launch reconnaissance satellites.

President Vladimir Putin, who made a state visit to China last May, is shaking hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping in front of the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. [Image source=Yonhap News]

China's position is different. From the standpoint of expanding its influence against the United States, China appears burdened by the 'international troublemakers' North Korea and Russia. Unlike North Korea, China does not supply weapons to Russia, which fits this context. Although President Putin met with Chinese President Xi Jinping shortly after his 'fifth term re-election,' no closer ties have been observed. At this point, China is focusing more on managing relations with the West than on the North Korea-China-Russia alliance.

There are also reports that China is in conflict with North Korea over the issue of 'dispatched workers.' A source familiar with North Korean affairs said, "Since the COVID-19 pandemic, about 90,000 North Korean workers remain in China," adding, "China says 'bring them back quickly,' while North Korea counters, 'then accept replacement workers.'" China is concerned about violating sanctions against North Korea, while North Korea fears losing a significant source of foreign currency earnings.

Joh Han-beom, a senior research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, pointed to the 'New Amnok River Bridge' as an indicator of the strained North Korea-China relationship. North Korea and China began construction of the New Amnok River Bridge downstream of the Amnok River in December 2010 to replace the Sino-Korean Friendship Bridge (Amnokgang Railroad Bridge) connecting Sinuiju and Dandong. Although the main bridge structure was completed in October 2014, its opening has been delayed for ten years. Joh explained, "North Korea has not paved the road section on its side connecting to the bridge," adding, "If the four-lane bridge opens, a significant volume of goods could flow, but North Korea fears becoming more economically dependent on China."

Kim Jong-un, Chairman of the State Affairs Commission of North Korea [Image source=Yonhap News]

At the time President Putin is expected to visit North Korea, China will hold the 'South Korea-China Diplomatic and Security Dialogue' in Seoul on the 18th. This is part of continuing high-level exchanges following the South Korea-China-Japan summit. A Chinese delegation led by Sun Weidong, Vice Foreign Minister of China, will visit South Korea.

With China stepping back from the North Korea-China-Russia alliance, our diplomatic power has become more crucial. A diplomatic source advised, "While close ties with allies are important, now is the time to draw China, which is distancing itself from North Korea and Russia, more strongly." The source added, "Managing relations with China and Russia through different approaches is most detrimental to North Korea," and evaluated, "Most Central Asian countries President Yoon Suk-yeol is visiting currently have close ties with Russia, so if Russia does not cooperate, expanding connections with neighboring countries is also a good strategy."