[Hot Interview] Jeong Seong-jang "North Korea Troubled by Loudspeakers... Requires Restrained Response"

Head of Sejong Institute Korea Peninsula Strategy Center Assesses Inter-Korean Clashes
"If North Korea Expands Loudspeakers, It Will Become Extremely Troublesome"
"Crisis Management Needed, Request to Refrain from Sending Leaflets to North Korea"

The South Korean government responded to North Korea's release of filth balloons by reactivating loudspeakers aimed at the North for the first time in six years. However, North Korea launched filth balloons again on the night of the 9th. Kim Yo-jong, Deputy Director of the Workers' Party, issued a statement immediately after the filth balloon release, warning, "If South Korea continues to carry out leaflet distribution and loudspeaker broadcast provocations beyond the border, without a doubt, you will witness 'a new response from us.'"

However, compared to North Korea's past threats of "striking back to the origin" in response to loudspeaker broadcasts, the government and experts assess that the level of threat has been considerably toned down. Jeong Seong-jang, Director of the Korea Chair at the Sejong Institute's Center for Korean Peninsula Strategy, advised, "At a point where North Korea has stepped back, it is necessary to manage the situation with restrained responses."

Jung Sung-jang, Director of the Korea Peninsula Strategy Center at Sejong Institute. Photo by Younghan Heo younghan@

The government has taken a hardline stance by deploying 'loudspeakers aimed at the North' in response to North Korea's provocations.

If you were to name the two things North Korea hates the most, they would be 'leaflets aimed at the North' and 'loudspeaker broadcasts.' Even from Kim Yo-jong's statement, it is clear that North Korea is very sensitive about the reactivation of loudspeakers. In the past, they responded with military provocations, but this time they have not crossed the line beyond the filth balloons. If the military expands the loudspeaker broadcast areas, it would create a very troublesome situation for North Korea.

What do you think was North Korea's intention in sending balloons containing 'excrement'?

It seems to be a somewhat emotional response. Since leaflets that provoke the Kim Jong-un regime are flying from the South, they appear to have acted emotionally.

The filth balloons released on the 8th and 9th contained paper sheets instead of excrement. Do you think this was in consideration of criticism from the South?

That can be seen as the case. By sending filth in the form of excrement, North Korea's image was also damaged to some extent. It probably was not easy for North Korea itself to go through the process of attaching dirty excrement to balloons. It can also be interpreted that they lowered the intensity to avoid the situation from worsening drastically.

Nine years ago, North Korea declared a 'quasi-war state' in response to loudspeaker broadcasts. Is there a possibility of a sudden incident this time as well?

In August 2015, when South Korea activated loudspeakers in response to the 'landmine provocation,' North Korea declared a 'quasi-war state' and fired flare guns at the loudspeakers. A similar crisis situation could unfold this time as well. For example, if loudspeaker broadcasts continue to expand fully, North Korea would find it difficult to maintain a restrained stance like now. If filth balloons, leaflet distribution, and loudspeaker broadcasts escalate in retaliation, it could escalate into armed conflict. It is also not possible to rule out the possibility that North Korea might carry out military provocations near the Demilitarized Zone or the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff announced on the 9th that they recently conducted a live exercise in the front-line area in preparation for the immediate implementation of broadcasts to North Korea.
[Photo by Joint Chiefs of Staff]

The government holds the position that it is difficult to request restraint from civilians distributing leaflets to the North, considering respect for 'freedom of expression' and other factors.

Constitutionally, North Korea is not a state. The government cannot prevent citizens from sending leaflets to their own land. However, if leaflets unnecessarily provoke North Korea and worsen inter-Korean relations, it also neglects the state's duty to ensure the safety of its citizens. There is a conflict between respecting 'freedom of expression' and the responsibility to protect 'citizens' safety.' Even if leaflet distribution is not stopped, it seems necessary to request restraint.

How do you think the government should respond?

North Korea is showing some restraint, and we have responded in a restrained manner as well, such as not operating loudspeakers loudly until late at night as in the past. It is desirable to induce North Korea to restrain its provocations rather than confront them head-on in the future. To avoid accidental clashes, it is necessary to clearly convey the message that 'if North Korea stops releasing filth balloons, we can also suspend loudspeaker broadcasts.'