CBS·YouGov, Poll After Trump Guilty Verdict
Toss-up States Support: Biden 50%, Trump 49%
U.S. President Joe Biden is shown to have a lead in approval ratings over Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump in battleground states that will determine the outcome of the presidential election. Following Trump's guilty verdict on charges related to 'hush money for sexual misconduct,' Biden's approval ratings have risen, creating a close race with Trump, according to analysis. A poll also revealed that voter confidence in Biden's economic policies has increased, narrowing the gap with Trump.
According to a poll conducted by CBS in collaboration with YouGov from the 5th to the 7th (local time) among 2,063 U.S. adults and 1,615 registered voters, and released on the 9th, Biden's approval rating in seven battleground states?Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin?stood at 50%, leading former President Trump, who had 49%, by 1 percentage point (margin of error ±3.8 percentage points).
This survey was conducted after Trump received a guilty verdict on charges related to hush money for sexual misconduct on the 30th of last month. Previously, a poll conducted by Bloomberg News and Morning Consult from the 7th to the 13th of last month, before the guilty verdict, showed Trump leading Biden by 4 percentage points in the same seven battleground states, with Trump at 48% and Biden at 44%. The battleground states are crucial regions that determine the outcome of the U.S. presidential election, drawing attention to Biden's lead in the CBS-YouGov poll. Trump and Biden each won six out of these seven battleground states in the 2016 and 2020 elections, respectively, securing their entries to the White House.
However, nationwide, Trump holds a 1 percentage point lead over Biden, with 50% to Biden's 49%.
When asked whether Trump's guilty verdict on hush money for sexual misconduct would influence their vote, 55% of respondents said it was not a consideration, 28% said it was a major consideration, and 17% said it was a minor consideration.
The most important consideration for voters when voting was the economy, cited by 81% of respondents. This was followed by inflation (75%), democracy (74%), crime (62%), border issues (56%), gun control (52%), and Trump's guilty verdict (28%) (multiple responses allowed). Regarding Biden's recent executive order to curb illegal immigration, 70% of respondents supported it, while 30% opposed it.
Among these findings, a poll also showed increased voter confidence in Biden's economic policies. According to a poll conducted by major foreign media and the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business targeting registered voters from the 30th of last month to the 3rd of this month, following Trump's guilty verdict on hush money charges, 41% of respondents said they trusted Trump on economic policy, while 37% trusted Biden. In the previous May poll, Trump had 43% and Biden 35%, an 8 percentage point gap that narrowed to 4 percentage points within a month.
Eric Gordon, a professor at the University of Michigan's Ross School of Business, stated, "The economy is the top issue for voters," adding, "Trump should be concerned about the shrinking voter confidence advantage he holds in the economic sector."
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