"Physical Exploration Accuracy 10%... Currently Unknown"
President Yoon Suk-yeol officially announced the high possibility of large-scale gas and oil deposits in the sea off Pohang, Gyeongbuk, raising the economic viability of fossil fuels as a variable in 10 years.
On the 4th, Lee Heon-seok, policy committee member of Energy Justice Action, said on MBC Radio's 'Kim Jong-bae's Focus' that "economic viability is linked to how oil sales and oil consumption will develop in the future," adding, "The International Energy Agency (IEA) says that due to the climate crisis, fossil fuel growth will completely stop within the next 10 years. The government says commercial development will only start in earnest around 2035, but there are many variables."
The day before, President Yoon held the first national briefing at the Yongsan Presidential Office and announced, "Physical survey results indicate a high possibility of massive amounts of oil and gas deposits in the sea off Yeongil Bay, Pohang." President Yoon stated, "Recent results show a very high possibility of oil and gas deposits amounting to 14 billion barrels, and these have been verified by leading research institutions and experts." Minister Ahn Deok-geun of the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy, who was present, explained that construction related to oil and gas field development is expected to start around 2027 or 2028, with commercial development beginning around 2035.
Regarding the physical survey, Lee explained, "Usually, oil field exploration proceeds in three stages: physical survey, exploratory drilling, and commercial production. For physical surveys, for example, seismic waves are sent from above to observe how the waves are reflected back. Alternatively, gravity and various geomagnetic forces are used to investigate what lies underground without drilling."
On the accuracy of physical surveys, he said, "The government states about 20%, but based on actual results, it is around 10%. For example, in Block 6-1, 25 drillings have been conducted so far, and the East Sea gas field has been operated. There are so many variables that it is impossible to know at this point."
Lee emphasized, "The important thing is not just that oil exists there, but whether sufficient economic viability can be achieved when investing the necessary costs." He continued, "The best case is if all the oil is gathered neatly in one lump, then it doesn't matter, but if it is divided into several lumps, multiple drilling sites will be needed later," adding, "That would dramatically increase costs."
Regarding the controversy over the identity of the U.S.-based deep-sea technology evaluation company 'Actgeo,' which the government commissioned for in-depth analysis during the physical survey stage, he said, "Actgeo did not actually conduct the physical survey. The government commissioned Actgeo for data analysis," and added, "The important thing is not whether Actgeo can be trusted or not, but what results will come from exploratory drilling in the future."
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