[New York Diary] A Historic U.S. Election Marked by Dislike, Stirring 'Obama Nostalgia'

On the 30th of last month, in front of the New York Manhattan Criminal Court where former President Donald Trump's trial was held, the area was filled with reporters, broadcast vans, Trump supporters, and citizens curious to watch, amid police road control. Trump supporters wore hats with the words 'TRUMP' or 'Make America Great Again (MAGA)' and exchanged harsh words with anti-Trump protesters shouting 'Guilty.' This chaos peaked around 4:40 PM when breaking news reported that former President Trump had been found guilty of hush money payments related to a sexual misconduct allegation. Local media rushed to report the unprecedented news of a former U.S. president receiving a guilty verdict in American history. It was the moment when the 230-year-old unwritten rule of the U.S. judicial system that 'a former president is not prosecuted' was broken. Former President Trump faces not only this case but also three other criminal trials and various civil lawsuits, increasing his 'judicial risk.'

Despite this situation, the moves of influential figures lining up to support the leading candidate for the next U.S. president have intensified. Bill Ackman, the Wall Street hedge fund billionaire chairman of Pershing Square Capital, known as the 'Little Buffett,' is expected to officially endorse former President Trump soon. Earlier this year, he supported Nikki Haley, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations and a Republican rival to Trump. Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla, is also expanding contact with former President Trump while forming an anti-Biden coalition with business leaders to defeat Democratic candidate President Joe Biden. Both Ackman and Musk are reported to have shifted their support to Trump based on the judgment that President Biden must not succeed in his re-election. Biden administration’s economic and foreign policies, excessive regulations, and domestic anti-Semitism have led to a 'Never Biden' sentiment. In contrast, former President Trump, a businessman himself, has promised pro-business policies such as tax cuts and deregulation.

An interesting point is that Biden’s supporters also share a commonality with Trump’s supporters in that their support is often based more on dislike of the opposing candidate than on genuine affection. According to a nationwide poll conducted by Emerson College in March, 30% of Biden supporters said they support him because they dislike Trump, which is 4 percentage points higher than the 26% who said they support Biden because they like him. Additionally, traditional Democratic constituencies such as young people and people of color are turning away from President Biden due to disappointment with inflation and Israel support policies, making this year’s U.S. presidential election more mixed than ever. Fred McNulty, an American living in New York, said, “I don’t agree with many of Biden’s policies nor do I like him, but I hope he succeeds in his re-election,” emphasizing, “Trump is currently a particularly dangerous figure in our system, so the Democratic candidate must occupy the White House.” He chose 'uncommitted' in the Democratic primary this year but the 'Never Trump' sentiment translated into support for President Biden.

Ultimately, this U.S. presidential election is expected to be one of the most disliked elections in history. President Biden is 81 years old this year, and former President Trump is 77, making both candidates quite elderly. With Trump facing various judicial risks, many Americans want to veto both candidates. With the rematch between the two sides confirmed early on, negative attacks are also active. Instead of politics that give hope to the people, politics driven by opposition to the other side is rampant.

"Yes, We Can." Sixteen years ago, Barack Obama, a 47-year-old first-term senator who became the first Black president in U.S. history, captured the public’s heart instantly with the campaign slogan that conveyed a message of change and hope. Opinions on former President Obama vary, but the 2008 U.S. presidential election is regarded as a festive election filled with positive messages, as it united Americans weary from the global financial crisis and the Iraq and Afghanistan wars with faith, hope, and expectations for unity. Currently, the world depends on the U.S. more than ever. As the U.S. imposes advanced technology and trade sanctions against China, global supply chains and trade structures are rapidly being reorganized. Beyond U.S.-China conflicts, global geopolitical risks are increasing with the Russia-Ukraine war, the Israel-Palestine conflict, and the possibility of China invading Taiwan. Moreover, the global economy is eagerly awaiting the timing of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. In this context, it is regrettable for us that the U.S. presidential election, which will have more influence on global affairs than ever, is being held as an election to choose the lesser evil. The nostalgia for the 2008 election, which offered hope and the possibility of change through a young and charismatic politician like Obama, is not felt only by Americans.