David Roche, a veteran Wall Street investment strategist and chairman of Independent Strategy, predicted that in about 18 to 24 months, the United States will have to decide whether to defend Taiwan against China's military pressure. He also analyzed that former President Donald Trump is more likely than President Joe Biden to take military action to defend Taiwan.
Roche made these remarks in a two-page report on Taiwan released on the 28th (local time). He stated, "'Operation Sword' is a series of gradual steps toward a new normal and does not signify an immediate crisis," adding, "The critical moment when the U.S. must choose whether to defend Taiwan from (China's) blockade is expected to be about 18 to 24 months from now."
Earlier, China conducted a two-day encirclement military exercise around Taiwan called "Operation Joint Sword-2024A (Lijian·利劍)" from the 23rd, immediately following the inauguration of pro-American Lai Ching-te as Taiwan's new president. At that time, Chinese officials stated that the exercise served as "a strong punishment against separatist acts by Taiwan independence forces and a stern warning against foreign interference and provocations."
Roche noted that China's blockade pressure on Taiwan did not have a significant impact on the market, calling this a "good sign." He also emphasized that this should be viewed as a "frog boiling slowly" strategy targeting the U.S. and Taiwan. He explained, "China's goal is to weaken Taiwan's resistance and gradually reduce voices demanding independence," and he believes that China's step-by-step escalation of pressure is unlikely to justify war for the U.S.
For example, after five or six blockade exercises, the Chinese military could block oil tankers heading to Kaohsiung, Taiwan, pressuring Taiwan, which has low energy self-sufficiency. However, Roche questions whether the U.S. would choose war in such a situation. Similar scenarios were observed during China's large-scale military operations in 2022 and 2023.
He stated, "These exercises confirm that China's preferred option to subjugate Taiwan is 'blockade,' not 'invasion,'" adding, "This strategy is much more suitable for the frog boiling approach and is less costly." It is a calculated move to weaken Taiwan's resistance without immediate and direct conflict.
Furthermore, Roche predicted that if cross-strait tensions escalate ahead of the U.S. presidential election this November, former President Trump is more likely than President Biden to militarily defend Taiwan. He said, "Interestingly, Trump's likelihood is higher," but explained, "This is because Trump views the blockade of Taiwan as a direct threat to the U.S. semiconductor supply chain, not out of a sense of responsibility to protect democracy."
Meanwhile, a U.S. congressional delegation led by House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul visited Taipei, Taiwan, this week after China's encirclement exercises ended, promising military support. At a prior press conference, he said, "(What China has done) over the past few days shows what a blockade essentially looks like," adding, "The key is to enable Taiwan to have the weapons to deter this."
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