[Insight & Opinion] President Yoon's Complex State of Mind

After Coalition Government Controversy, Even Supporters Turn Away
President Yoon Appears to Decide Confrontation with the Opposition Is Better

The title of a book published in the United States in 1996, "Shock and Awe," might well describe President Yoon Seok-yeol's feelings after the crushing defeat in the general election. The ruling party's seats have now dwindled to 108. As the opposition pushes for the president's impeachment or a constitutional amendment to shorten his term, the defensive barrier to block these moves has thinned. Even if only a few ruling party lawmakers side with the opposition, the situation could become serious.

Typically, a president under pressure tries to ease the opposition's offensive through cooperation. Examples include President Park Chung-hee's summit talks with Kim Young-sam, leader of the New Democratic Party; President Roh Moo-hyun's proposal for a grand coalition; and President Park Geun-hye's nomination of Kim Byung-joon, a pro-Roh Moo-hyun figure, as prime minister candidate. President Yoon was no different. Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, requested summit talks eight times, but President Yoon did not respond for 602 days. Then, nine days after the general election, he called Lee directly?a groundbreaking move. This change was driven by anxiety and a sense of crisis. President Yoon continued to seek Lee's favor for a while, even asking about Lee's health as he was scheduled for hospitalization.

However, President Yoon was likely quite disappointed. According to the presidential office, it was agreed that the opening remarks at the summit would be "very brief." Instead, Lee read aloud ten pages over 15 minutes, filled with critical phrases such as "dictatorship," "political disappearance," and "family scandal cleanup." President Yoon's expression stiffened. He may have perceived this sudden and provocative propaganda as a signal that Lee would not give up building momentum for presidential impeachment. President Yoon did not receive any security assurances from the opposition.

The rumors about "Park Young-sun as prime minister and Yang Jeong-cheol as chief of staff" marked the peak and the final stage of President Yoon's anxiety. Although the presidential office denied these rumors, the issue stirred resentment among conservatives. Questions arose: "Is Yoon Seok-yeol, who intends to govern with close aides of Moon Jae-in, progressive or conservative? Is he on their side or ours?"

Following the controversy over Yoon Seok-yeol-style coalition government, signs emerged that his support base was turning away from him. Consequently, his approval ratings dropped further. Around this time, President Yoon may have felt a greater fear than the shock of the general election defeat. If even his own camp turns away, the defensive capability to protect a president with approval ratings in the 20-30% range is significantly weakened. President Yoon may have become fully alert.

Ultimately, after experiencing the general election defeat and observing the reactions of the opposition and his supporters, President Yoon seems to have undergone another change of heart. He is trying to shed his previous image of poor communication and regain public support. He held a press conference after a long time and allowed reporters to ask questions freely. He even had a kimchi stew party with journalists. Communication with the opposition is adjusted as part of this "dilution of the poor communication image." He appears skeptical about removing threats of special investigations and impeachment through negotiations with the opposition.

President Yoon seems to have changed his mind, thinking that "it is better to regain the support base and confront the opposition clearly." The confrontation between camps has served as a safety net for minority party presidents. A significant portion of President Yoon's supporters want investigations into "power-related suspicions involving the previous administration and others." This desire mixes ethics seeking the rule of law and a craving for retribution. Although the Yoon administration's prosecution was previously seen as inactive, the situation has recently changed. President Yoon revived the Office of Civil Affairs and appointed prosecutors investigating suspicions involving Moon Jae-in and Lee Jae-myung's families to key positions such as the head of the Seoul Central District Prosecutors' Office. Since then, the investigations have become a social issue.

President Yoon appointed Jeong Ho-sung, a former secretary of the Blue House under the Park Geun-hye administration whom he had investigated, as a secretary in the presidential office. This act symbolically reveals President Yoon's complex feelings. It seems his heart now wants to rely on his camp after a long journey.

Heo Man-seop, Professor at Gangneung-Wonju National University