Increase in Related Facility Investment Expected Due to AI Impact
In the first quarter, positive signals of industry recovery continued, such as increased sales of electronic products and stabilization of semiconductor inventory, and it is expected that this growth trend will accelerate in the second half of the year.
The Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) announced this on the 23rd through the 'Semiconductor Manufacturing Monitoring Report,' published jointly with semiconductor industry company TechInsights.
The report contains information that positive signals are being detected in the semiconductor industry due to increased electronic product sales in the first quarter, stabilization of semiconductor inventory, and increased wafer fab production capacity. It also includes expectations that industry growth may accelerate further in the second half of the year.
Electronic product sales in the first quarter increased by 1% compared to the same period last year. It is expected to increase by 5% in the second quarter. Integrated circuit (IC) sales grew by 22% year-over-year in the first quarter. Due to increased chip shipments for high-performance computing (HPC) and a continuing upward trend in memory prices, a strong growth rate of 21% is also forecasted for the second quarter.
IC inventory levels stabilized in the first quarter and are expected to improve further in the second quarter. Wafer fab production capacity continues to increase, rising 1.2% quarter-over-quarter in the first quarter. It is expected to exceed 40 million units per quarter based on 300mm wafers. The second quarter may see a 1.4% increase.
By region, China shows the highest production capacity growth rate in the world. However, from the perspective of fab utilization rates, especially in mature processes, the report forecasts no signs of recovery in the first half of the year. Additionally, in the memory sector, fab utilization rates in the first quarter were lower than expected due to supply control aimed at inventory adjustment.
Semiconductor capital expenditures remain conservative following fab utilization trends. In the fourth quarter of last year, they decreased by 17% year-over-year and fell by 11% in the first quarter. However, a 0.7% increase is expected in the second quarter. In the memory sector, capital expenditures are projected to rise by 8% in the second quarter compared to the first, indicating a recovery trend in semiconductor investment.
Clark Chung, Senior Director at SEMI, stated, "Demand in the semiconductor sector is recovering, but the pace of recovery varies by segment. Demand for artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductors and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is the highest, and related equipment investments are expected to continue accordingly." He also explained, "Since only a few suppliers provide AI semiconductors, the impact of AI semiconductors on the overall increase in IC shipments is somewhat limited."
Boris Metodiev, Director at TechInsights, said, "Due to the high growth of generative AI, demand for memory and logic semiconductors is surging in the first half of the year." However, he predicted, "the analog, discrete, and optoelectronic device sectors will undergo an adjustment period due to slow recovery in the consumer market and decreased demand in the automotive sector."
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