[News Terms] Iran President's Death Clouds 'Iran Nuclear Deal' Revival Prospects

Trump Abandonment, Biden Seeks Renegotiation
NYT "Bigger Issue Than Other Regional Conflicts"

The 'Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA·Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action)' is an agreement on Iran's military nuclear issues signed on July 14, 2015, in Vienna, Austria.

It is an agreement between Iran and the six countries including the United States, United Kingdom, France, China, Russia, and Germany, as well as the European Union (EU) (P5+1), all permanent members of the UN Security Council. The core of the agreement is that the US and the EU would lift economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for Iran abandoning its nuclear development program.

The scene of the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Yongsan-gu, Seoul, on the 20th, when the death of Ebrahim Raisi, the President of Iran, who suffered a helicopter crash accident, was officially confirmed.
[Photo by Yonhap News]

The Iran nuclear program agreement was concluded during the Barack Obama administration in the US, leading to the lifting of economic sanctions on Iran. However, in May 2018, former President Donald Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, and Iran resumed its nuclear program.

President Biden, who took office in 2021, sought to restore the Iran nuclear deal that former President Trump had abandoned and negotiated with Iran through EU mediation. Although the negotiations were considered to have passed the critical point in early 2022, they ultimately broke down repeatedly and have not reached an agreement to date.

In this situation, the sudden death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash has complicated the US's calculations in the Middle East. With the Gaza war between Israel and the Palestinian armed group Hamas continuing into its seventh month, the unexpected absence of the Shia leader, the Iranian president, could further destabilize the Middle East situation.

On the 19th (local time), upon hearing the news of the helicopter accident involving Raisi, who is effectively the second most powerful figure after Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, the US is closely monitoring the potential impact on the Middle East situation.

The US daily The New York Times (NYT) summarized the factors that have heightened tensions in the Middle East and identified Iran's nuclear program as the greatest threat. Even before the helicopter crash, relations between the US and Iran over the nuclear program were on the brink of a crisis.

The US sought to deepen Iran's isolation and stabilize the Middle East by pursuing a 'mutual defense treaty' with Saudi Arabia, the Sunni leader, aiming to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. However, the outbreak of the Gaza war between Hamas, supported by Iran, and Israel, as well as Israel's bombing of the Iranian consulate in Syria, have escalated regional tensions to the highest level, putting US efforts at risk of collapse.

The NYT analyzed, "The question of whether Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons or leveraging its capability to quickly produce nuclear weapons has emerged as a bigger issue than other regional conflicts."

Avril Haines, US Director of National Intelligence (DNI), said last week at the US Senate Intelligence Committee, "Iran is becoming increasingly aggressive," adding, "As seen in previous elections, it seeks to sow discord and undermine trust in democratic institutions."

With the other 'Iran nuclear deal,' which was nearing completion, now halted again due to the death of President Raisi, the Middle East situation has fallen into uncertainty.