Iran Official: "All 9 Helicopter Passengers Dead"
Cause of Crash Not Yet Announced...Foreign Media Blame Bad Weather
Political Tension Inevitable...No Major Policy Changes Expected
On the 19th (local time), it was confirmed that Ebrahim Raisi, the President of Iran (pictured), who was involved in a helicopter crash, has officially died. The already tense situation in the Middle East is expected to escalate further.
Major foreign media outlets, citing anonymous sources from Iranian authorities on the 20th, reported that “the helicopter carrying President Raisi was completely engulfed in flames due to the crash,” and “unfortunately, all passengers on board died in the crash.” According to CNN, the helicopter was carrying President Raisi, Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Malek Ramati, Governor of East Azerbaijan Province, Imam Ali Alehashem of Tabriz City, as well as the pilot, security personnel, and security officials, totaling nine people.
On the day of the search, a drone from T?rkiye (Turkey) discovered a heat source presumed to be the wreckage of the crashed helicopter and shared the coordinates with Iranian authorities, leading to a full-scale search operation. The area where the heat source was detected is near the village of Tavil in Iran, about 30 km from the Azerbaijan border.
Iranian Authorities Have Not Yet Announced the Cause of the Crash
Iranian authorities have not yet made an official announcement regarding the cause of the crash. However, major foreign media reported that President Raisi attended the inauguration ceremony of the Giz Galasi Dam in the northwestern East Azerbaijan Province the day before and was returning to Tabriz by helicopter when the helicopter crashed in the Dizmar mountainous area near Varzeghan in central East Azerbaijan Province amid bad weather conditions such as rain and fog.
President Raisi, who was elected in June 2021 with 62% of the vote, is considered a hardliner hostile to the West, including the United States and Europe, as well as Israel. He is known for violently suppressing the “hijab protests” triggered by the suspicious death of a woman in 2022 who was accused of not wearing her hijab properly. He had been widely regarded as the leading candidate to succeed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the highest-ranking leader in Iran.
AP News: “Middle East Tensions Inevitable”
Foreign media such as AP News have linked the death of the head of the Iranian administration in the helicopter crash with the escalating war between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas, diagnosing that it is highly likely to cause repercussions throughout the Middle East. Since the 1979 revolution, Iran has taken the most proactive stance in countering the West and Israel in the Middle East by indirectly supporting armed groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Palestinian territories for decades.
Iran has waged a “shadow war” rather than an all-out war with Israel, but under President Raisi’s administration, it has built an ultra-hardline image, including launching the first-ever attack on Israeli mainland in April. During a statement made on a visit to Sri Lanka last month, he emphasized, “The Israeli regime has oppressed Palestinians and seized their land for 75 years,” and stated that “the usurpers (Israeli authorities) must be punished.”
Foreign media are closely watching Israel’s response. Israel has not issued any particular statement regarding this incident. The Economist reported that there are views linking the crash to Israel. However, AP News stated, “There is no evidence that Israel is involved in (this helicopter accident).”
The political situation in Iran is expected to be chaotic for the time being. According to The Washington Post (WP), the Iranian constitution stipulates that in the event of the president’s death, the vice president succeeds the presidency and an election must be held within 50 days to elect a new president. If President Raisi dies, the presidency will be succeeded by Mohammad Mokhber, the most senior among Iran’s 12 vice presidents, who is expected to prepare for the by-election during this period, WP reported.
However, there is analysis that the main policy direction of Iran is unlikely to change due to this accident. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the highest-ranking leader in Iran, emphasized that “this accident will not disrupt the operation of the government.” The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) analyzed that “(this accident) is not expected to change Iran’s stance on hot geopolitical issues such as the nuclear program and the Gaza Strip war.”
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