[Bread-Baking Typewriter] "The Horror Named 'National Suicide'"

Demographic Cliff Structure Economic Analysis
Criticism of Fiscal Soundness Fixation... "Active Fiscal Expansion Needed"

"South Korea is self-destructing. Due to population decline, the sustainability of essential pillars of the community, such as social infrastructure centered on healthcare and education, as well as the labor market, is disappearing."

This is the provocative diagnosis given by author Kim Hyun-sung of Suicide Korea. At least the marketing has succeeded. It is said that since its release at the end of last month, it has already gone into a second printing. Although the author himself insists it is not fear marketing, it is hard to answer the question, "Then what is it?"

The figure presented right from the start is the total fertility rate of 0.72 as of last year. Given South Korea’s various characteristics, he emphasizes that population decline is like a "high-speed train heading toward poverty." He points out that prices are high, housing costs are expensive due to preferences for jeonse or home purchases, and the economy is concentrated in low-productivity service industries. He also notes that the population is excessively concentrated in the Seoul metropolitan area, excessive costs are spent on entrance exams and private education, and a vicious cycle continues due to intense competition. This is a comprehensive collection of the previously proposed theories of national ruin due to population extinction.

However, predicting the future based solely on population changes is premature. While population trends can be forecasted using complex statistical methodologies, the resulting social changes are a separate matter. For predictions about the future to be accurate, all variables such as population composition, external technological levels, and environmental conditions must remain unchanged over time. The numerous incorrect predictions that jobs will disappear due to machines and technology are in this same context. South Korea’s gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.4% year-on-year even in the first quarter of this year. Although the population is declining, various figures show that the economy is somehow moving forward.

The figures and statistics strongly emphasized by the author also raise some doubts. He points to the limitations of the domestic service industry and the problem of small-scale self-employment. However, the self-employment rate statistics he presents are from 2018, two years before the major social changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The evidence he cites that more than half of the poor are self-employed is from 2013, over a decade ago. When discussing excessive competition in the service industry, he relies on a 2008 research result. Although he later mentions that these are old statistics and argues that the situation is not much different now, the persuasiveness is inevitably diminished.

He concludes that the middle class has an exclusive nature but provides no argument. He simply explains that it is because those working for large corporations and living in Seoul understand the value of their tangible and intangible assets. This alone is insufficient to explain the tendencies of a particular class. The reluctance to give up what one has is a universal human psychology.

His treatment of suicide rates is also hasty. He claims that young people have limited opportunities to find jobs overseas, so the escape routes from a bleak Korean society are narrow, leading them to choose suicide. He even describes Korea as a "suicide powerhouse." Can one assert the reasons why humans make such extreme choices so definitively? Can such a diagnosis be made solely based on the OECD’s statistics showing Korea’s suicide rate as the highest? If this is a social science book, and the cover proclaims it as a socio-economic study of catastrophe and extinction, the author should develop his arguments more meticulously.

However, when uncovering the reality of the national pension’s depletion theory or pointing out problems in the Korean stock market, precision is evident. This seems to come naturally from insights accumulated through experience in the financial sector. The author further argues for government fiscal expansion to solve the problem of society heading toward extinction. He dismisses concerns about fiscal soundness as mere excuses. His analysis is that if spending is not made where it is immediately needed due to obsession with fiscal soundness, the future will be nothing but "fiscal soundness." Along with fiscal expansion, he proposes attracting the money that citizens waste on places like cryptocurrencies into the government bond market. This would allow the government to secure resources in ways other than tax revenue, and citizens would find stable investment options. He argues that this could lead to a society where even tax increases can be discussed.

Suicide Korea | Written by Kim Hyun-sung | Sideway | 344 pages | 19,000 KRW