"Global Trade Growth to Double This Year"

Inflation Easing and US Boom
Geopolitical Conflicts and Trump Comeback as Uncertainty Factors

International organizations such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Trade Organization (WTO) all forecast that the global trade growth rate will more than double compared to last year.

According to major foreign media reports on the 6th (local time), global trade activities, which slowed down last year due to rising inflation, sharp interest rate hikes, and weak demand, are expected to surge this year thanks to easing inflation and a booming US economy.

The OECD projected that global trade in goods and services will grow by 2.3% this year and 3.3% in 2025, contrasting with last year's growth rate of only 1%. The IMF forecasted in its World Economic Outlook that the global trade volume growth rate will reach 3% this year. The WTO predicted that goods trade, which declined by 1.2% last year, will increase by 2.6% this year.

Claire Lombardelli, Chief Economist at the OECD, stated, "This is due to a 'cyclical recovery' where trade increases alongside economic growth," adding, "China and East Asia will lead the global trade recovery trend."

Neil Shearing, Chief Economist at Capital Economics, said, "New growth is occurring in global trade," and noted, "The 'manufacturing downturn' that severely impacted trade activities last year has entered a recovery phase."

According to the World Trade Monitor by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), goods trade entered a growth phase in February for the first time in a year. The annual goods trade growth rate rose to 1.2% in February, rebounding from a 0.9% decline in January. Foreign media analyzed this as a result of trade growth between the US and China.

However, despite this recovery, it is still far from certain that the global trade growth rate will return to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels. According to the IMF, the scale of goods and services trade increased by an average of 4.2% annually from 2006 to 2015.

Additionally, the OECD, IMF, and WTO collectively warned that geopolitical tensions, regional conflicts, and economic uncertainties are increasing as governments focus on national security, self-reliance, and supporting domestic companies. According to the WTO, since the Russia-Ukraine war, the growth rate of extra-regional trade among geopolitically affected countries is 4% lower than the growth rate of intra-regional trade.

In particular, the upcoming US presidential election in November is a factor that increases uncertainty in global trade. Former US President Donald Trump has stated that if re-elected, he would impose a universal tariff increase of 10 percentage points on all trade partners. He is even considering imposing tariffs of up to 100% on some Chinese imports.