[K Population Strategy] No Workers Left, Facing Collapse... Half the Population Over 50 in 7 Years

A citizen is looking at job information posted at the Seoul Western Employment Welfare Plus Center in Mapo-gu, Seoul.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

It is predicted that South Korea's working-age population will decrease by about 10 million in 20 years. The median age is expected to exceed 50 years in just 7 years.

The Korea Future Population Institute published the "2024 Population Report" on the 6th. According to the report, the median age, which refers to the age of the person in the exact middle when the total population is arranged by age, will rise from 45.5 years last year to 50.3 years in 2031. This means half of the population will be aged 50 or older. The number of children aged 7, the typical age for entering elementary school, will be halved from about 430,000 in 2023 to about 220,000 in 2033.

The military manpower will also sharply decline. The number of new active-duty enlistment candidates, 20-year-old males, will decrease from about 260,000 in 2023 to about 190,000 in 2038, breaking below the 200,000 mark.

Due to low birth rates, the working-age population aged 15 to 64 will decrease by 9.4 million, from 36.57 million in 2023 to 27.17 million in 2044. The institute diagnosed, "The decline in the working-age population will reduce consumption vitality, leading to the collapse of the domestic market, increase the burden of elderly support, and cause the economic growth rate to slow rapidly, solidifying long-term low growth."

As the elderly population increases, the number of single-person elderly households will rise significantly. The proportion of single-person households aged 65 or older, which was 9.1% (1.99 million households) of all households last year, will increase to 20.2% (4.65 million households) by 2049. In 2050, the elderly population aged 65 or older will reach a historic high of 18.91 million, accounting for 40% of the total population.

In 2060, the number of deaths will be 746,000, 4.8 times the number of births (156,000). As a result, the population will naturally decrease by 590,000. The super-aged population aged 80 or older, which was only 4.4% (2.29 million) of the total population in 2023, will increase to 20.3% (8.49 million) in 2061. South Korea's total population will decline from 51.71 million last year to 39.69 million in 2065, falling into the 30 million range.