[Military Story] South and North Naval Forces: 'We Are One Step Ahead'

US Military Power Assessment Agency: "South Korean Navy Ranks 5th Worldwide"
North Korea Strives to Deploy Nuclear-Powered Submarines

Since the Cheonan ship sinking incident, North Korea's naval power has been developing. In January 2021, North Korea announced the 'Five-Year Plan for Defense Power Development' at the 8th Congress of the Workers' Party. One of the tasks is the development of nuclear-powered submarines and underwater-launched nuclear strategic weapons. Intelligence agencies believe that North Korea does not yet have the technology to develop nuclear-powered submarines. However, a concerning point is that as the Russia-Ukraine war prolongs, North Korea and Russia are becoming closely aligned. Our military authorities revealed that since July to August last year, about 6,700 containers capable of carrying more than 3 million artillery shells have been transferred from North Korea to Russia. In return, North Korea could receive technology related to nuclear-powered submarines. Our intelligence agencies have also identified signs of intensive hacking attacks on our shipbuilding companies since the second half of last year, directed by Chairman Kim Jong-un. Considering North Korea's past behavior in developing other weapon systems, there is an analysis that it is possible they will succeed in operationalizing such capabilities in the near future.

The South Korean and U.S. navies, along with the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, conducted a trilateral naval exercise on the 11th in international waters south of Jeju to enhance joint response capabilities against North Korea's nuclear and missile threats. From the bottom, the ROK Navy's Aegis destroyer Seoe Ryu Seong-ryong, the U.S. Navy aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer Ariake. (Photo by the Navy) [Image source=Yonhap News]

Fleet 2 ships are conducting live-fire anti-ship training in the West Sea. From the bottom, Cheonan (FFG-II), Chungbuk (FFG-I), Daejeon (FFG-II), Gongju (PCC). (Photo by the Navy) [Image source=Yonhap News]

Military experts are focusing on North Korea's tactical nuclear attack submarine, the 'Kim Gun-ok Hero Ship,' which was launched in September last year. Photos released by North Korea show that the Kim Gun-ok Hero Ship is equipped with 10 vertical launch tubes. Although there are still many issues to resolve, such as the bow torpedo tubes, if a small submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM) is developed, the possibility of equipping it is high.

North Korea Focuses on Developing Strategic Cruise Missiles and Other Naval Weapons

Since early this year, North Korea's naval weapons development has accelerated. From January 5th for three days, they unleashed a barrage of artillery fire in the West Sea buffer zone. On the 19th of the same month, they tested the underwater nuclear weapon system 'Tsunami-5-23.' Then, on the 24th, near Pyongyang, they fired several new strategic cruise missiles 'Fire Arrow-3-31' toward the West Sea. The Fire Arrow-3-31 is an upgraded version of the existing strategic cruise missiles 'Arrow-1 and 2.' The suffix '31' is interpreted to mean that it can carry the tactical nuclear warhead 'Hwasan-31,' which North Korea unveiled last year. Four days later, on the 28th, North Korea demonstrated the ability to launch the Fire Arrow-3-31 from a submarine near Sinpo, South Hamgyong Province. On the same day, they also verified the performance of the submarine-launched strategic cruise missile (SLCM). On the 30th, they fired the existing Arrow-2 toward the West Sea. North Korea claimed that this was not a 'test launch' but a 'launch training,' implying that the Arrow-2 has moved beyond the development stage and can be deployed in actual combat. Since the Workers' Party plenary meeting at the end of last year announced 'naval power enhancement,' it is expected that underwater provocations such as the operationalization of tactical nuclear attack submarines will continue. This means they are moving according to their weapons development timetable.

However, by international standards, North Korea's naval power is not strong at present. According to a recent report by the U.S. military power assessment organization 'Global Firepower (GFP),' North Korea ranked 36th in the military power index. In contrast, South Korea ranked 5th.

According to the 2022 Defense White Paper, our navy possesses about 90 combat ships, 10 landing ships, 10 mine warfare ships, 20 support ships, and 10 submarines. On the other hand, North Korea has about 420 combat ships, 40 support ships, 70 submarines, and 250 landing ships. Simply by the number of vessels, North Korea leads. However, naval power assessment comprehensively considers not only the size of warships and submarines but also the quality and stock of weapons, offensive and defensive capabilities, and shipyard functions. Our navy holds many high-tonnage ships such as Aegis destroyers. In comparison, most North Korean naval vessels are small ships with short operational time and cruising range, meaning their capability for distant sea operations is limited.

Significant Technological Gap Between South and North Korean Navies in Weapon Quality and Shipyard Functions

In August last year, North Korea also demonstrated naval power in response to 'Eulji Freedom Shield' (UFS) exercises. Chairman Kim Jong-un inspected the Navy's East Sea Fleet's Guard 2nd Surface Ship Squadron and released photos of him aboard an Apnok-class frigate (estimated displacement 1,500 tons). Judging by the ship's exterior, it has a stealth shape. This ship's appearance is similar to our navy's Incheon-class frigate, but it is uncertain to what extent it possesses stealth capabilities.

Shin Jong-woo, Secretary General of the Korea Defense and Security Forum, said, "Rather than a stealth ship, it appears to be designed to reduce radar reflection area compared to existing North Korean ships," estimating that its stealth performance is limited.

A military official said, "Our navy's warships not only carry powerful armaments but also have the ability to detect, track, and intercept enemy attacks with radar, which North Korea lacks," adding, "North Korea is unlikely to think it can directly engage and win a full-scale naval war with us."