LDP Suffers Complete Defeat in By-Elections... Kishida Administration Hit by Slush Fund Backlash

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered a complete defeat in the by-elections for the Japanese House of Representatives (Lower House). Analysts say the so-called 'slush fund scandal' dealt a direct blow. It is expected that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, who had been aiming to run again in the LDP presidential election this September, will face even greater difficulties in managing the political situation.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida
Photo by Yonhap News

According to the Nihon Keizai Shimbun on the 29th, the LDP lost all the by-elections held the previous day to elect members of the House of Representatives for Tokyo's 15th district, Shimane's 1st district in western Honshu, and Nagasaki's 3rd district in Kyushu. In two of the three constituencies where the elections were held, the LDP did not even field candidates, and in Shimane's 1st district, known as a 'conservative stronghold' with strong LDP support, the LDP lost to Akiko Kamei, a former member of the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), the main opposition party. This is the first time since the introduction of the single-member district system in 1996 that the LDP has lost a seat in Shimane's 1st district.

Until now, the LDP had effectively staked everything on nominating Norimasa Nishikori, a former finance bureaucrat, in Shimane's 1st district. Prime Minister Kishida himself visited Shimane Prefecture twice to appeal for support, but it is evaluated that he could not reverse the atmosphere caused by the plummeting approval ratings following the slush fund scandal. The CDP candidate, former lawmaker Kamei, secured 58.8% of the vote, surpassing the LDP's Nishikori candidate by a substantial 17.6 percentage points.

The CDP also won in Tokyo's 15th district and Nagasaki's 3rd district, where the LDP did not field candidates. In Tokyo's 15th district, despite a fierce competition among nine candidates including Hirotada Ototake, the bestselling author of 'No One's Perfect' who was embroiled in an affair scandal, CDP candidate Natsumi Sakai won with 29.0% of the vote, securing victory by double-digit margins. In Nagasaki's 3rd district, where the opposition candidates faced off in a two-person race, candidate Katsuhiko Yamada won with 68.4% of the vote.

The LDP's dismal results are attributed to the negative impact of the slush fund scandal and low government approval ratings. This by-election was the first election held after the LDP's 'slush fund scandal' and was seen as a test that would determine the fate of the Kishida administration. Toshimitsu Motegi, LDP Secretary-General, said, "It was a difficult election result," adding, "The backlash was very strong."

The Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported, "(With the complete defeat in the by-elections) the atmosphere within the party will inevitably become more critical of Prime Minister Kishida." The media outlet pointed out that Prime Minister Kishida needed a strategy to dissolve the House of Representatives early and win the general election to regain central authority in order to succeed in the LDP presidential election this fall, but "this complete defeat has made such an option difficult."

Originally, the Kishida administration planned to aim for a rebound in approval ratings through income and resident tax cuts starting in June and the G7 summit held in Italy. Currently, the Kishida administration's approval rating is in the 20% range, a level indicating a crisis of resignation. Kyodo News analyzed, "This complete defeat in the by-elections supports strong criticism against the LDP," adding, "Since all three seats were previously held by the LDP, it dealt a blow to the Kishida administration."

The CDP, which won a landslide victory in the by-elections, pressured Prime Minister Kishida by demanding the dissolution of the House of Representatives on the same day. However, within the LDP, there is growing caution about dissolution, as victory cannot be guaranteed if a general election is held immediately after dissolution. There is also analysis that voices demanding Prime Minister Kishida not run in the September presidential election will grow stronger within the party.

Meanwhile, all the constituencies where the elections were held were previously represented by LDP lawmakers. Shimane's 1st district, known as a conservative stronghold, became vacant due to the death of Hiroyuki Hosoda, a former Speaker of the House of Representatives. Tokyo's 15th district and Nagasaki's 3rd district became vacant after the incumbent LDP lawmakers resigned due to violations of the Public Offices Election Act and slush fund issues, respectively.