[Seoul Voter Sentiment Analysis] ④ Election District Delimitation Changes Outcomes

Adjusting Electoral Districts According to Population Upper and Lower Limits
High Risk of Changes Based on Political Interests
Full Authority Should Be Delegated to External Agencies Ensuring Objectivity

Analysis of voter sentiment in the 22nd general election revealed that the election outcome could have changed depending on the method of electoral district delineation. There is growing support for reforming the system to entrust the delineation of electoral districts to an external body, preventing lawmakers?who are inevitably sensitive to district boundaries?from influencing the process.

According to the National Election Commission on the 29th, in the Seoul Gangdong-gu Gap district, considered a major battleground in the 22nd general election, the election results would have significantly changed if the district delineation method had been different. In this district, which drew attention for a face-off between incumbent female lawmakers, Jin Sun-mi of the Democratic Party won with 50.1% of the vote against Jeon Ju-hye of the People Power Party, who received 47.9%. The vote difference was 3,302 votes. Excluding out-of-district early voting, the vote counts by precinct showed that Jin led in Gangil-dong (2,444 votes), Amsa 1-dong (1,253 votes), and Sangil 2-dong (603 votes), but trailed Jeon in Myeongil 1-dong (1,045 votes), Myeongil 2-dong (1,259 votes), Godeok 2-dong (1,177 votes), Amsa 3-dong (433 votes), and Sangil 1-dong (1,498 votes).

At the nameplate ceremony of the 22nd National Assembly Opening Comprehensive Support Office held at the National Assembly Members' Office Building on the 8th, 300 National Assembly member badges were unveiled. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81@

Notably, this area underwent changes in electoral district delineation this time. Gildong was moved to the neighboring district Gangdong-gu Eul. Gildong was a district where Lee Hae-sik of the Democratic Party gained 523 more votes in this election. Had Gildong remained in Gangdong Gap while Gangil-dong and Amsa 1-dong were moved to Gangdong-gu Eul, the election would have been unpredictable.

In the case of Cheonan-si Gap in Chungnam Province, the voter sentiment in Cheongnyong-dong attracted significant attention. Cheongnyong-dong was newly added to Cheonan-si Gap this time, and the incumbent lawmaker and member of the Special Committee on Political Reform, Moon Jin-seok, opposed the district delineation. Moon stated, "The area of Cheonan-si Gap is the largest, covering two-thirds of Cheonan-si, and with the delineation, both the population and the number of precincts increased," urging for a re-discussion. Analysts suggest that Moon’s strong opposition was influenced by the fact that in the 2022 local elections, the People Power Party had a high vote share in Cheongnyong-dong. In fact, during the 2022 local elections, Lee Jae-gwan of the Democratic Party received 7,296 votes in the Cheonan mayoral race in Cheongnyong-dong, while Park Sang-don of the People Power Party received 9,003 votes.

Interestingly, the inclusion of Cheongnyong-dong in Cheonan-si Gap ultimately benefited Moon. He won the election by a margin of 4,384 votes, with a significant contribution of 2,747 votes ahead in Cheongnyong-dong. Had Cheongnyong-dong not been included in Cheonan Gap, the election would have been much closer.

Delimitation methods that can determine election outcomes... Must be fully entrusted to external agencies

The National Election Commission’s Parliamentary Electoral District Delimitation Committee mandated that electoral districts for the 22nd general election be delineated with a minimum population of 136,600 and a maximum of 273,200 per district. Adjustments to district boundaries and areas are only allowed when population thresholds are exceeded. As election experience accumulates, voter sentiment down to the precinct level can be considered, making district delineation a sensitive issue for candidates. It can be either advantageous or disadvantageous.

The problem is that even if the Delimitation Committee drafts a plan, the National Assembly can request resubmission, allowing political influence to be reflected. Ultimately, lawmakers who need every vote are tempted to engage in gerrymandering?arbitrarily drawing districts to favor a particular party or candidate. Given this situation, there is growing support for transferring full authority over electoral district delineation to an objective external agency, excluding the influence of interested lawmakers.

On February 21, Yoon Jae-ok, floor leader of the People Power Party, introduced political reform measures in a negotiation group representative speech, stating, "We will delegate the authority for electoral district delineation to the National Election Commission." On the 16th, Speaker Kim Jin-pyo proposed an amendment to the Public Official Election Act, mandating that the ‘Parliamentary Election System Proposal Committee’ submit proposals one year before the general election, with the National Assembly finalizing them nine months prior. The amendment also includes provisions removing the National Assembly’s right to request resubmission of district delineation plans, which had allowed parliamentary interference.