Half-life of decline completed amid Middle East crisis... 4.03%↓ compared to Jeonju [Bitcoin Now]

Up 3.57% from the Previous Day to the $63,000 Range
Halving is a Short-Term Negative... Beware of Volatility
Mining Industry Faces a Test... Industry Restructuring Expected

Last week, the Bitcoin market, which faced the risk of collapsing below the $60,000 level due to instability in the Middle East, regained stability on the 20th. The fourth halving event was completed in the early hours of the day (20th), but there was no significant drop. The halving event, which reduces mining rewards to half of the previous amount, is considered a long-term positive but a short-term negative. For Bitcoin miners, who are the suppliers of Bitcoin, industry restructuring is expected to be inevitable.

According to the global cryptocurrency market tracking site CoinMarketCap, as of 12:22 PM KST on the 20th, the price of Bitcoin was $63,951.44, up 3.67% from the previous day. Compared to a week ago, it fell 4.03%, and compared to a month ago, it rose 1.28%. Compared to a year ago, it recorded a 121.73% increase.

Bitcoin prices maintained the $66,700 level a week ago but plunged sharply as the risk of Middle East wars, such as the Iran-Israel conflict, escalated. On the 19th, it nearly broke below the $60,000 level but then recovered to the $64,000 level thanks to bargain buying and the positive impact of the halving event.

The halving, which was the biggest market focus this week, was completed without any surprises. The halving was expected to occur in the early hours of the 20th. Reuters, citing the cryptocurrency market platform CoinGecko, reported that the halving was completed in the afternoon Eastern Time on the same day. AP News also reported that Bitcoin’s halving appeared to have occurred in the afternoon on the same day.

The Bitcoin halving, which occurs once every four years, was expected to happen in the early hours of the 20th. Before the halving, miners were rewarded with 50 bitcoins per block mined. In the first halving in 2012, the mining reward per block decreased from 50 to 25 bitcoins. After the second and third halvings, the reward per block was reduced to 12.5 and 6.25 bitcoins, respectively. In this fourth halving, the reward is expected to decrease to 3.125 bitcoins. There is an expectation that scarcity will increase as the reward decreases.

The cryptocurrency industry evaluated the Bitcoin halving as "a short-term negative but a long-term positive." Kim Min-seung, head of the research center at Korbit, said, "When a halving occurs, miners have to sell 'more' bitcoins to maintain operations, so prices tend to fall a few months before the halving and then rise in the long term." He explained that immediately after the halving, mining difficulty rises sharply, which may lead mining companies to sell off holdings to invest more in high-speed computers and electricity.

Sorting out the winners and losers in the mining industry is expected to be inevitable. According to Deutsche Bank, during the three previous Bitcoin halvings, the industry’s hash rate (cryptocurrency mining capacity) dropped sharply by 25% during the first halving, 11% during the second, and 25% during the third. It is expected that the mining landscape, which began to become crowded due to the Bitcoin surge, will be reorganized around companies with abundant cash flow.

According to the US economic media CNBC, Reginald Smith, an analyst at JP Morgan, recently wrote in an investor note, "All else being equal, the halving will reduce industry profits by half, which is likely to trigger consolidation and business restructuring," adding, "I hope this leads to a rational adjustment of network hash rate and capital expenditures (CAPEX) in the industry."

According to the cryptocurrency data provider Alternative, as of this day, the Fear & Greed Index, which measures investor sentiment, stands at 66 points (Greed). Last week, it recorded 72 points (Greed). Alternative’s Fear & Greed Index ranges from 0, indicating extreme fear and pessimism about investment, to 100, indicating optimism.