"Population of 30 Million with Only Tokyo and Fukuoka Surviving"…Japanese Scholar's View on 'Japan 100 Years Later'

Tokyo and Fukuoka Expected to Prosper
"Number of Cities with Over 100,000 Residents to Halve"

Amid projections that Japan's population will fall to the 30 million range within 100 years, it is predicted that most cities, except for Tokyo and Fukuoka, will cease to grow. On the 18th, Asahi Shimbun provided a detailed report on the state of Japanese cities 100 years from now, based on simulations by Professor Mori Tomoya of the Economic Research Institute at Kyoto University.

It is projected that by 2120, 100 years from now, Japan's population will decrease to the level of the Edo period (17th to 19th century), with only Tokyo and Fukuoka thriving among the cities.
[Photo by AFP·Yonhap News]

First, Professor Mori predicted that the number of cities with populations over 100,000 in Japan will be halved in 100 years due to the overall population decline. He forecasted that Japan's population will shrink to the 30 million level, similar to the Edo period. Currently, Japan's population is about 120 million, so this would mean a reduction to one-quarter. In an interview with Asahi Shimbun, he pointed out, "There are various proposals at the Population Strategy Council to cap the population at 80 million, but at the current rate of decline, that seems difficult."

According to Professor Mori, many regional cities will disappear due to population decline, and among major cities, only Tokyo and Fukuoka will see an increase in population share. While Tokyo's population growth is natural as the capital of Japan, when asked about the unexpected rise of Fukuoka, he explained, "Fukuoka's strengths are its distance from Tokyo and its wide hinterland that forms an economic zone." He also added that Fukuoka's role as a transfer point for travel throughout Kyushu is an advantage.

Professor Mori: "Effects of Regional Relocation and Immigration Policies Are Uncertain"

Professor Mori first predicted that the number of cities in Japan with populations over 100,000 will be reduced to half of the current number in 100 years. This is because the overall population of Japan is declining. Professor Mori forecasted that Japan's population will decrease to around 30 million, similar to the Edo period.
[Photo by EPA·Yonhap News]

On the other hand, Japan's second-largest city, Osaka, is predicted to decline. Professor Mori explained, "Unlike Fukuoka, Osaka's problem is that it is too close to Tokyo relative to its population size." He analyzed that "Osaka's decline began when the Shinkansen high-speed 'Nozomi' started operating in 1992, shortening travel time between Tokyo and Osaka."

He further predicted that the opening of the even faster 'Linear Chuo Shinkansen' will accelerate Osaka's decline. In particular, Professor Mori stated, "Osaka has become a replica of Tokyo," and predicted, "As the population decreases and advances in transportation and communication technology erase the distance barrier with Tokyo, there will be no need for two similar large cities."

He also predicted that within cities, population will not concentrate in specific areas but will be dispersed in a process of 'flattening.' This is because reduced transportation and communication costs eliminate the need to live densely as is currently the case. He foresaw, "Even if Tokyo or Fukuoka increase their population share, the total population will decline," and added, "Tower mansions in city centers will no longer be necessary, and low-rise residential areas will spread throughout the city."

He diagnosed that in a society of population decline, attention should rather be paid to areas outside cities. Professor Mori said, "Although the population decreases in areas outside cities, they are rich in natural resources," and projected, "By utilizing technology, it is possible to create a structure that generates profits in primary industries such as agriculture, forestry, and fisheries with a small workforce."

Therefore, Professor Mori pointed out that discussions about moving populations from large cities to rural areas are meaningless. He dismissed proposals focused on promoting youth migration as "unrealistic," stating, "Considering the cost aspects, it is not feasible." Instead, he emphasized the need to think based on the premise of population decline. Furthermore, he diagnosed that even if the population decreases in rural areas, it will not be a problem if sufficient income can be generated by utilizing natural resources.

Professor Mori also viewed immigration as not a solution to the population decline problem. He argued, "Immigration cannot fully offset population decline," and insisted, "We must face the reality of population decline and consider the direction of society accordingly." Finally, he added that it is necessary to consider whether population decline is necessarily bad and whether it might be possible to live prosperously in areas outside cities even if cities decline.