[Bread-Baking Typewriter] Overflowing Information and Errors... "The Answer Lies in Mathematics"

Complex and Diverse Real-World Issues Explained Through Mathematics
"A Weapon to Judge True and False Information"
"Response Is More Important Than Mistakes"

"Is a slight increase in the Earth's average temperature a big problem?" Some people respond cynically to voices concerned about the climate crisis. They argue that a small rise in temperature will not have a significant impact on our lives.

Focusing only on the average temperature may prevent us from understanding the severity of climate change. But the reality is worse. According to climate models, if we take no significant action, the global average temperature will rise by 2 degrees Celsius. While this might seem like a minor change when thinking about daily temperature variations, what truly affects our lives are not the usual weather conditions but the special days that bring floods, heatwaves, and blizzards. Small temperature changes can greatly increase the number of dangerous days exceeding 40 degrees Celsius. In other words, extreme weather events will occur more frequently. This is why attention must be paid to changes in extreme values when looking at the normal distribution of temperatures.

[Bread-Baking Typewriter] Overflowing Information and Errors... "The Answer Lies in Mathematics"

Oliver Johnson, professor of information theory at the University of Bristol and director of the Institute of Statistical Science in the School of Mathematics, author of The Power of Mathematics, emphasizes, "Mathematics is likely the right tool to understand the situation." Mathematical techniques for certain questions provide insights free from emotions and personal biases, and key mathematical tools can be powerfully utilized in the thought process.

The author gained public attention during the COVID-19 pandemic by explaining disease-related statistics in an easy-to-understand way through social networking service (SNS) accounts. Amid the flood of information and errors, those with a mathematical perspective on statistics were able to grasp and predict disease trends in our society through numbers.

"Mathematical thinking helps to understand vast data and complex situations, preventing misinterpretation and confusion." The book presents various 'mathematical models' as ways to think like a mathematician. For example, by analyzing the fraction of shots attempted by a soccer team and summing the resulting fractional scores, one can obtain the total expected goals in a match. Methods for calculating expected goals are also applied in financial engineering, which uses mathematical models. Financial markets create derivatives based on stocks that reflect the market's own volatility and other factors.

Bayesian inference, a branch of statistics, is utilized in various technologies such as Apple's Siri voice recognition and autonomous vehicle control. Given a large amount of training data, if someone says a specific word into a microphone, it is possible to calculate the probability that the microphone correctly recognizes that word. Then, using Bayes' theorem, one can calculate the probability that a person spoke that word given a certain sound was received by the microphone.

The author warns against the 'Filter Bubble' and emphasizes the courage to admit mistakes. The filter bubble refers to the phenomenon where internet information providers deliver personalized information to users, causing users to receive only filtered information. Weather forecasts and stock market predictions start from the belief that real-world phenomena occur according to a series of natural laws. It is practically impossible to model everything precisely. However, the likelihood that the situation is as good or bad as seen in exceptional data samples is low. By following the principle of moderation until additional data emerges, one can avoid biased reactions.

Ultimately, the author says, "The important thing is how we respond after making mistakes. Being wrong is not shameful. We must humbly acknowledge errors, deeply reflect on why they occurred, and move forward. Politicians may be criticized for U-turns, but for scientists, moving in the right direction is more desirable."